Reading CVGI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CVGI free→Reading CVGI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CVGI free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 38% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile, historically a value-trap pattern. If CVGI cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $5.16. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $5.40 CVGI trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $8.42 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 38% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.83x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.09 → $-0.05 (+48.1% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$309.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$747.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,558.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how CVGI is doing now and in the future. It helps us understand management's plans.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth or improved margins compared to prior quarters.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows losses or falling revenue.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CVGI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 announcing earnings for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The information, including exhibit 99.1 hereto, the registrant furnished in this report is not deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. Registration stateme…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2023-Q2, 2023-Q3, 2024-Q1, 2024-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Parts & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CVGI Commercial Vehicle Group Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
BWA BorgWarner | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
MOD Modine Manufacturing Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
APTV Aptiv | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AUR Aurora Innovation Inc | — | — | elevated |
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
CVG aims to achieve a positive free cash flow for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Despite the goal of achieving positive free cash flow in 2026, cash from operating activities was negative $1.56M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress towards this target so far.
“CVG is providing the following outlook for the full year 2026: Free Cash Flow Positive.”
“CVG is providing the following outlook for the full year 2026: Free Cash Flow Positive.”
CVG has set a revenue guidance range of $660 million to $700 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $171.495M in 2026-Q1, indicating a need for significant growth to meet the full-year guidance of $660M to $700M. The trajectory shows a need for acceleration to achieve the target.
CVG has set an adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $24 million to $30 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has set an adjusted EBITDA guidance of $24M to $30M for 2026. However, the financials do not provide specific EBITDA figures for 2026-Q1, making it difficult to assess progress towards this target.
“CVG updated the Company's outlook for the full year 2026: Adjusted EBITDA $24 - $30 million.”
Why it matters: Changes in interest rates can impact consumer spending and CVGI's market. This is key for future performance.
Confirms one read:The FOMC raises interest rates. This means the economy is getting stronger and consumers may spend more.
Confirms the other:The FOMC cuts interest rates. This shows economic weakness that might hurt consumer spending.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Information set forth herein under
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (e) On June 10, 2025, the Compensation Committee (the “ Committee ”) of Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. (the “ Company ”) granted 805,031 shares of restricted stock pursuant to the Company's Amended and Restated 2020 Equity Incentive Plan (the “ Plan ”) to Mr. James Ray, the Company’s President and Chief Executive Officer. It came to the attention o…
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. Information set forth herein under
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Departure of Chief Financial Officer On March 26, 2026, Andy Cheung, Chief Financial Officer of Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. (the “Company”), notified the Company of his decision to resign from his position as Chief Financial Officer and from any and all other positions held with the Company and its subsidiaries and affiliates, effective April 15…
“CVG updated the Company's outlook for the full year 2026: Net Sales $660 - $700 million.”
“CVG is providing the following outlook for the full year 2026: Net Sales $660 - $700 million.”
“CVG is providing the following outlook for the full year 2026: Adjusted EBITDA $24 - $30 million.”