Reading CTO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CTO free→Reading CTO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CTO free→NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 17% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $20.60. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $21 CTO trades at 21× p/e — 1.5× the 14× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $26 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 21% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 20%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
Over the trailing year it converted 10.57x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated robust grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.02 → $0.10 (+416.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$80.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$175.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,475.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company's valuation drop affects its financials. Investors will look for signs of recovery or further decline.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share (EPS) improves compared to the previous quarter.
Confirms the other:EPS declines further compared to the previous quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CTO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1, 99.2 and 99.3, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, u…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Diversified REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CTO CTO Realty Growth, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | fair | moderate |
WPC W. P. Carey | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | full | low |
EPRT Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LXP Lexington Realty Trust | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | low |
GNL Global Net Lease, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 5 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company has raised its 2026 investment guidance to a range of $175 million to $250 million.
The company has consistently beaten earnings expectations, indicating a focus on maintaining a positive earnings trajectory.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift for CTO Realty and its peers. This could help improve the valuation outlook.
Confirms:Revenue growth in the real estate sector exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
of this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1, 99.2 and 99.3, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, u…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Pursuant to the terms of the management agreement among Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. (“PINE”), Alpine Income Property OP, LP and Alpine Income Property Manager, LLC (the “Manager”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of CTO Realty Growth, Inc., dated November 26, 2019 and amended on July 18, 2024 (the “Management Agreement”), the Manager manages, operates, and administers PINE’s day-to-day operations, business and affairs. PINE pays the Manager a base…
of this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1, 99.2 and 99.3, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, u…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. As previously disclosed by CTO Realty Growth, Inc., a Maryland corporation (the ”Company”), in its Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) on September 30, 2024, the Company and certain subsidiaries of the Company entered into a Credit Agreement, as amended by the First Amendment to Credit Agreement and Joinder, dated as of December 20, 2024 (as so amended, the “Existing Credit Agreement”) for a…