Reading OLP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OLP free→
One Liberty Properties, Inc. (OLP)
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$24.41+0.54%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment hinges on guidance changes, as a cut could negatively impact estimates, while a raise could boost momentum. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Reit - Diversified
- Market cap
- $529.78M
- Employees
- 9
- IPO date
- 1995-05-12
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $24.41. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$26.22consensus
Range $22.16 – $33.70
vs price: -7% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$23.95consensus
Range $22.45 – $49.98
vs price: +2% above
Method agreement — · 3 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratingmedium confidence
At $24 OLP trades at 18× p/e — 1.3× the 14× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $27 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
18.3x
peer 14.2x · own history —
Premium
1.3x peer
Growth the price needs
-6%
our forecast 4%
Our fair value
$27.42
range $23.18 – $32.04
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 6% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
46th pctl · Real Estate
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.37x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated fragile grew net income 35% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
29th pctl · Real Estate
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
- real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to fall when long-term rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +346.7% / 30d, n=1for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.15 → $0.67 (+346.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: real estate is in maturing, with decelerating (~1.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strongProvisional
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$77.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$180.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,828.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · signal_labelmoderate change
Signal changed from 'favorable' to 'mild_favorable'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for revenue growth re-accelerating in the sector
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift for One Liberty Properties.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Real estate revenue growth is speeding up again. It is now above 5%.
Disproves:Revenue growth is still below 5%. It may keep slowing down.
Sector context
as of 2026-06-16
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for OLP yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in the Real Estate sector.
- Watch for FOMC decisions that change interest rates.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for OLP and other Real Estate names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like VICI, WPC, and BNL keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Real Estate sector momentum should keep lifting OLP and other Real Estate names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If OLP raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-03-05), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If OLP cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-03-05), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like VICI, WPC, and BNL start missing or guiding lower, the Real Estate tailwind helping OLP and other Real Estate names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0116d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+19 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.