Reading STRS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track STRS free→Reading STRS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track STRS free→NASDAQReal EstateReal Estate - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been volatile, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, STRS is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 17% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $28.50. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $28 STRS trades at 11× p/e, below its 14× p/e peer median. Our $35 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 17% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.59x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated fragile grew net income 35% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$104.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$428.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,464.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a recovery in the real estate sector.
Confirms:Real estate sector revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement
Loan extension supports growth through project financing.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement . Effective June 8, 2026, Holden Hills, L.P. (the Partnership), a Texas limited partnership and 50% owned subsidiary of Stratus Properties Inc. (Stratus), as borrower, Stratus, as guarantor, and Fifth Third Bank, N.A., as successor by merger to Comerica Bank, as lender (Lender), entered into a Third Modification Agreement, an Amended and Restated Installment Note and a Second Installment Note (collectively, the Amendments), which amend that certain L…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Diversified REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
STRS Stratus Properties, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | fair | elevated |
WPC W. P. Carey | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | full | low |
EPRT Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LXP Lexington Realty Trust | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | expensive | low |
GNL Global Net Lease, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 5 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
13 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Real Estate names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Stratus announced an estimated range of potential liquidating distributions per share.
Stratus entered into a Third Modification Agreement and other amendments with Fifth Third Bank.
Why it matters: M&A activity may improve Stratus's market position. It could also boost its financial health.
Confirms:A press release shows successful integration or good financial results from the M&A.
Disproves:No news or bad updates about the M&A activity.
The Purchase Agreement contains representations, warranties and covenants of the parties, which were made only for purposes of the Purchase Agreement as of the specific dates set forth therein, were made for the benefit of the other party and should not be relied upon by any other person. Such representations, warranties and covenants (i) are subject to limitations agreed upon among the parties (ii) have been qualified by schedules and exhibits, (iii) are subject to materiality standards that…
shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the Exchange Act), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . Stratus Properties Inc. (Stratus) issued a press release dated March 27, 2026, announcing its year end December 31, 2025 results. A copy of the press release is furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
IMPORTANT ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND WHERE TO FIND IT This communication relates to Stratus and the Board’s Plan, and may be deemed to be solicitation material. In connection with the Plan, Stratus intends to file a Proxy Statement with the SEC. The Proxy Statement will be sent to all stockholders of Stratus. Stratus will also file other documents regarding the Plan with the SEC. BEFORE MAKING ANY VOTING DECISION, INVESTORS AND STOCKHOLDERS OF STRATUS ARE URGED TO READ THE PROXY STATEMENT (IN…