Reading EPRT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EPRT free→Reading EPRT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EPRT free→NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, EPRT is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 56% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. Rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If EPRT reverses course and raises guidance next quarter, that's a sharp positive shift. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $30.27. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $30 the market pays 23× p/e — above the 14× p/e peer median but in line with its own 30× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $19 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $34–$40. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 57% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 25%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.57x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.35 → $0.34 (-3.6% / 30d). 3 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 90% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$77.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$201.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,335.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The dividend payment shows the company wants to give value back to shareholders.
Confirms:The company pays the declared dividend of $0.32 per share as scheduled.
Disproves:The company stops or lowers the dividend payment.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for EPRT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On May 29, 2026, the Board of Directors of Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.32 per share of common stock for the second quarter of 2026. The second quarter 2026 dividend represents an annualized dividend of $1.28 per share of common stock. The dividend is payable on July 14, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on June 30, 2026. A copy of the related press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorpo…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$34.00 – $40.00 (median $37.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-05-13
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Diversified REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
EPRT Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
WPC W. P. Carey | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | full | low |
LXP Lexington Realty Trust | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | low |
GNL Global Net Lease, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 5 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
AAT American Assets Trust | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | full | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on expanding the portfolio by acquiring new properties to drive revenue growth.
Continue to increase the quarterly dividend to provide consistent returns to shareholders.
Focus on improving operating income through cost management and revenue growth.
Why it matters: Confirming the new AFFO guidance signals strong earnings growth potential for the year.
Confirms:Q2 2026 AFFO per share meets or exceeds the range of $2.00 to $2.05.
Disproves:Q2 2026 AFFO per share falls below $2.00.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue growth is on track after recent changes.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 7% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Improving operating income is crucial for long-term growth. Trends here indicate financial health.
Confirms:Operating income increases year over year by more than 5%.
Disproves:Operating income decreases year over year by more than 5%.
Why it matters: Acquisitions can increase revenue. They also show management's growth plans.
Confirms:There is an announcement of a property acquisition. It is valued over $10 million.
Disproves:No new property purchases will be announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can affect tenant performance and the health of the portfolio.
Confirms one read:Retail sales growth exceeds 2% year over year.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decline or grow less than 1% year over year.
Why it matters: Dividend growth shows strong cash flow. It also shows management cares about returning value.
Confirms:Management announces a dividend increase. It will be above $0.32 per share.
Disproves:Management says there will be no increase or a decrease in the dividend.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key to management's priority of increasing revenue through acquisitions. Strong growth signals success in this strategy.
Confirms:Q2 revenue grew more than 10% from last year. This shows good property buys.
Disproves:Q2 revenue grew less than 5% from last year. This shows problems with acquisitions.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As previously disclosed on a Current Report on Form 8-K filed by Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. (the “Company”) on December 17, 2025 (the “Original Form 8-K”), Robert W. Salisbury was appointed as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of the Company, effective as of January 1, 2026. The Company is filing this Amendment to th…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 22, 2026, Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. The press release is furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
Other Events. On March 6, 2026, the Board of Directors of Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.31 per share of common stock for the first quarter of 2026. The first quarter 2026 dividend represents an annualized dividend of $1.24 per share of common stock. The dividend is payable on April 14, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on March 31, 2026. A copy of the related press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorp…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 11, 2026, Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for the three months and year ended December 31, 2025. The press release is furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.