Reading WPC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WPC free→Reading WPC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WPC free→NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is low, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers like VICI, BNL, and GNL. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $76.18. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $75 the market pays 27× p/e — above the 14× p/e peer median but in line with its own 26× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $68 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts: $72–$85. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 11% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.50x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.65 → $0.72 (+10.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 9.8% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$57.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$161.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $971.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into financial health and performance. This can influence investor sentiment.
Confirms one read:Earnings results show strong revenue and cash flow growth.
Confirms the other:Earnings results show weak revenue and cash flow performance.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Increase dividend per share
Dividend increase aligns with capital allocation objectives.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
is hereby incorporated into this section, except for the fourth paragraph. Forward-Looking Statements Certain of the matters discussed in this communication constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, both as amended by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements regarding the intent, belief or expectations of W. P. Carey and can…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$72.00 – $85.00 (median $75.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-06-08
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2014-Q3, 2015-Q1, 2015-Q2, 2015-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Diversified REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
WPC W. P. Carey | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | full | low |
EPRT Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LXP Lexington Realty Trust | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | expensive | low |
GNL Global Net Lease, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 5 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
AAT American Assets Trust | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | full | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Increase the 2026 AFFO guidance range based on higher anticipated full-year investment volume.
Continue to increase the quarterly cash dividend per share.
Focus on increasing cash generated from operating activities.
Why it matters: Continued growth in cash from operations shows the company is improving its cash generation. This can support future investments.
Confirms:Cash from operations is over $283.2M.
Disproves:Cash from operating activities falls or stays under $283.2M.
Why it matters: Reaching this target shows strong demand and good work in the investment pipeline.
Confirms:Investment volume reported at $1.5 billion or more by year-end.
Disproves:Investment volume is below $1.5 billion by year-end.
Why it matters: A drop in rent growth may show weaker tenant demand and lower revenue.
Confirms:Same-store rent growth reported below 2.4% year over year.
Disproves:Same-store rent growth reported above 2.4% year over year.
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the real estate sector picks up, it could signal a recovery. This would benefit W. P. Carey.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth speeds up and moves closer to past highs.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth keeps slowing down.
Why it matters: An increase in the dividend shows strong cash flow and management's faith in earnings.
Confirms:Management announces a higher dividend of more than $0.930 per share.
Disproves:Management maintains the dividend at $0.930 per share.
Why it matters: More investment volume shows strong growth and expansion in the property portfolio.
Confirms:Investment volume is over $600 million for Q2.
Disproves:Investment volume is under $500 million for Q2.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026 , W. P. Carey Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued an earnings release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the earnings release is attached as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise subjec…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 24, 2026, W. P. Carey Inc. (the “ Company ”) consummated the public offering (the “ Offering ”) of €1.0 billion in aggregate principal amount of senior unsecured notes (the “ Senior Notes ”) consisting of €500 million aggregate principal amount of 3.250% Senior Notes due 2031 (the “ 2031 Notes ”) and €500 million aggregate principal amount of 3.750% Senior Notes due 2035 (the “ 2035 Notes ”) issued by the Company. The Offering settled on…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 17, 2026, W. P. Carey Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with BofA Securities, Inc. and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC as underwriters (collectively, the “Underwriters”), BofA Securities, Inc. and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (in such capacities, the “Forward Sellers”) and Bank of America, N.A. and JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association (in such capacities, the “Forward Purchasers”) in…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 12, 2026, W. P. Carey Inc. (the “ Company ”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “ Underwriting Agreement ”) with J.P. Morgan Securities plc, Barclays Bank PLC, BNP PARIBAS and Wells Fargo Securities International Limited as representatives of the several underwriters listed in Schedule 1 to the Underwriting Agreement (collectively, the “ Underwriters ”), in connection with the public offering (the “ Offering ”) of €1.0 billion i…