W. P. Carey (WPC)

NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-10-23

$63.90-0.99%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge W. P. Carey’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	462.62M
EPS	—	0.743
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.83B
EPS	—	3.115
AFFO per share	$5.19–$5.27	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.99B
EPS	—	3.06

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
AFFO per share at or above $5.16 in FY26	The company raised 2026 AFFO guidance to $5.16-$5.26 per share, showing solid earnings growth.	Intact	AFFO per share falls below $5.16 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. AFFO guidance was raised from a range of $5.13-$5.23 per diluted share in 2025-Q4 to $5.19-$5.27 in 2026-Q2, reflecting higher expected investment volume and improved rent outlook. The trajectory is delivering consistent upward revisions aligned with management's statements. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Investment volume at or above $1.1 billion by Q2 2026	A primary condition in W. P. Carey's published investment case. The stated target is >=1.1 billion USD.	Intact	Investment volume fails to reach $1.1 billion by Q2 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Investment volume increased from $682 million in 2026-Q1 to $1.3 billion year to date by 2026-Q2, with management reporting visibility into over $1.9 billion for full-year 2026 including pipeline and scheduled projects. The trajectory shows strong capital deployment aligned with stated priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain disciplined capital allocation with debt issuances and repayments	A supporting condition in W. P. Carey's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain active debt issuance and repayment as per recent quarters.	Intact	Debt management deviates from disciplined issuance and repayment pattern	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management issued $350 million senior notes in 2026-Q2 to repay $350 million notes due October 2026 and issued €1.0 billion senior notes in 2026-Q1 while repaying €500 million notes due 2026. The capital structure management shows disciplined refinancing and liquidity maintenance, delivering on stated priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Quarterly dividend per share at or above $0.93	The company raised 2026 AFFO guidance to $5.16-$5.26 per share, showing solid earnings growth.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.93	Dividend per share: $0.94 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.93 USD per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 29, 20260.94 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 23ab2c37-e860-42bf-8275-370b3a1f7e42. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Dividend per share increased steadily from $0.90 in 2025-Q2 to $0.94 in 2026-Q2, reflecting management's commitment to increasing shareholder returns. The trajectory is delivering consistent dividend growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$1.99B

$1.98B → $1.99B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$1,981,309,890	1 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$1,981,309,890	1 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$1,981,309,890	1 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$1,981,309,890	1 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$1,981,309,890	1 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$1,989,162,780	1 / 7
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$1,989,162,780	1 / 7
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$1,988,199,370	1 / 7
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$1,988,244,779	2 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$1,988,244,779	2 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$1,988,244,779	2 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$1,987,800,930	1 / 6
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$1,987,800,930	1 / 6
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$1,988,244,779	2 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$1,988,244,779	2 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$1,988,244,779	2 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$1,988,244,779	2 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$1,988,244,779	2 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$1,988,244,779	2 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$1,985,115,057	2 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$1,985,115,057	2 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$1,985,115,057	3 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$1,985,115,057	3 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$1,985,115,057	3 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$1,985,115,057	3 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$1,985,115,057	3 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$1,985,115,057	3 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$1,985,115,057	3 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$1,986,240,057	3 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$1,986,240,057	3 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$1,986,240,057	3 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$1,986,240,057	3 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$1,986,240,057	3 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$1,986,240,057	3 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$1,986,240,057	3 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$1,986,240,057	3 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$1,986,240,057	3 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$1,986,240,057	3 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$1,986,240,057	3 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$1,986,240,057	3 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$1,986,240,057	3 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$1,986,240,057	3 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$1,986,240,057	3 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$1,986,240,057	3 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$1,986,240,057	3 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$1,986,240,057	3 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$1,985,175,307	3 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$1,985,175,307	3 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$1,985,175,307	3 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$1,985,175,307	3 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$1,985,175,307	3 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	8	2
2026-06-01	5	8	2
2026-07-01	6	8	1
2026-08-01	6	7	1
2026-09-01	8	8	1
2026-10-01	8	7	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 20 · prior Jul 22

$80.00 → $76.00-5.0%

Wells FargoOct 19

$73.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$44.00$88.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

AFFO per share at or above $5.16 in FY26Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Investment volume at or above $1.1 billion by Q2 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain disciplined capital allocation with debt issuances and repaymentsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Quarterly dividend per share at or above $0.93Dividend per share: $0.94 per share

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-18.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

W. P. Carey outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

WPC is an income-focused real estate investment with a relatively robust earnings-quality profile, rather than a turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is intact this month, but recent risk moved from low to moderate and sector conditions are a headwind.

What's priced into W. P. Carey

The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure describes WPC as cheap versus peers, while the overall value factor rates it expensive and the peer premium is 0.99. Priced-in fragility is low, and the snapshot labels expectations as justified, so the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term fundamentals have support from a recent earnings beat and higher 2026 AFFO guidance, meaning adjusted funds from operations, a measure of cash earnings commonly used for real estate companies. Investment deployment and dividend growth are on track, though a recent risk increase and a high-miss-rate industry call for caution; the estimated near-term miss probability is 28%.

What W. P. Carey hinges on

The multi-year view depends on WPC sustaining its raised guidance and continuing to deploy capital accretively, meaning investments that add to per-share cash earnings. A guidance cut after a recent raise would damage credibility, while Fed rate cuts or continued earnings strength among sector peers could provide support to the sector.