CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO)

NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-10-23

$19.78-2.32%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge CTO Realty Growth, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	46.58M
EPS	—	0.217
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	176.79M
EPS	—	0.933
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	194.13M
EPS	—	0.9

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Investment guidance raised to $175M-$250M in 2026	The company has a positive earnings trend and raised 2026 investment guidance to $175M-$250M.	Intact	Investment guidance falls below $175 million in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Investment guidance for 2026 was raised from $175-$250 million in 2026-Q1 to $300-$400 million in 2026-Q2. The Company completed $152.6 million of investments in 2026-Q2 at a 10.2% yield. The trajectory is delivering with increased capital deployment and raised guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain positive earnings trajectory with consistent beats	Consistent earnings beats show strong management execution.	Broken	EPS falls below $0.45 in FY26 or consistent misses occur	Diluted EPS: $0.38 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.45 in FY26 with positive revisions. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 20260.38 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2873c549-db85-4f75-b947-6a697c5c05ad. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net income per diluted share improved from $0.13 in 2026-Q1 to $0.38 in 2026-Q2. Core FFO per diluted share remained stable at $0.52 to $0.53. The earnings trajectory is delivering with positive growth in net income and stable Core FFO. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth to at least $212.5M in 2026	A primary condition in CTO Realty Growth, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $212.5 million.	Intact	Revenue growth falls below ~$175 million in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net income per diluted share improved from $0.13 in 2026-Q1 to $0.38 in 2026-Q2. Core FFO per diluted share remained stable at $0.52 to $0.53. The earnings trajectory is delivering with positive growth in net income and stable Core FFO. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	0	0
2026-06-01	6	0	0
2026-07-01	6	0	0
2026-08-01	5	0	0
2026-09-01	5	0	0
2026-10-01	5	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Investment guidance raised to $175M-$250M in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain positive earnings trajectory with consistent beatsPublished status: Broken
Revenue growth to at least $212.5M in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-13.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

CTO Realty Growth, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CTO is a real estate investment company with an improving operating story, rather than a proven durable compounder. Its long-term thesis has strengthened from mixed to mildly favorable, though recent performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into CTO Realty Growth, Inc.

The evidence describes CTO as cheap versus peers, while also indicating a 0.53 premium versus peers and an expectations gap of -0.32, so the valuation picture is mixed. Priced-in fragility is low and the current tag is justified, but the company remains loss-making and model confidence is medium.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term operating indicators have improved: same-property NOI growth rose, leasing had a positive cash rent spread, and net income per diluted share increased while Core FFO per share stayed stable. Management raised 2026 investment guidance and completed investments at a 10.2% yield, but the real estate sector is a headwind and recent earnings have been erratic.

What CTO Realty Growth, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management sustaining investment activity, positive earnings progress, and same-property NOI growth. A reversal and cut to recently raised guidance would hurt management credibility; Fed rate cuts or continued strong results from sector peers would provide a more favorable backdrop.