Reading CRK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CRK free→Reading CRK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CRK free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is also neutral. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, CRK is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 8% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $13.34. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $13 CRK trades at 12× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $12 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $13–$18. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 4% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.60x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 33% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=789).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.10 → $0.02 (-76.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 9 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 8% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 32.1% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$213.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$687.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,878.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
As of June 16, 2026, the valuation changed, moving to a full label. Risk rose, indicating a higher level of uncertainty. The sector backdrop remained a headwind, suggesting challenges in the broader market environment. The macro backdrop was updated, reflecting recent economic conditions.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Natural gas prices have a direct impact on Comstock's revenue and profits.
Confirms:Natural gas prices rise above $4.00 per Mcf.
Disproves:Natural gas prices drop below $3.00 per Mcf.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CRK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events On June 15, 2026, Comstock Resources, Inc. (the "Company" or "Comstock") announced that it has sold a minority equity interest in Comstock's midstream subsidiary, Pinnacle Gas Services LLC ("Pinnacle"), to certain funds managed by Sixth Street. Sixth Street invested $600 million and acquired a 27% non-controlling common equity interest in Pinnacle with Comstock retaining a 73% controlling common equity interest. Comstock will continue to manage, operate and control Pinnacle under…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$13.00 – $18.00 (median $16.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-22
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Exploration & Production.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CRK Comstock Resources, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | fair | elevated |
COP ConocoPhillips | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
EOG EOG Resources | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | full | moderate |
OXY Occidental Petroleum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FANG Diamondback Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Comstock plans to spend approximately $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion in 2026 on its development and exploration projects.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Comstock has maintained its capex guidance of $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion for 2026. The financials show a free cash deficit from operations of $206 million in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in funding these expenditures internally.
“Comstock plans to spend approximately $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion in 2026 on its development and exploration projects.”
“Comstock plans to spend approximately $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion in 2026 on its development and exploration projects.”
Comstock aims to enhance operational efficiency through cost management and production optimization.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Production cost per Mcfe increased from $0.77 in 2025-Q4 to $0.93 in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in enhancing operational efficiency. The increase in costs suggests challenges in achieving cost management goals.
Comstock aims to increase revenue and profitability through strategic investments and operational improvements.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Natural gas and oil sales decreased from $364 million in 2025-Q4 to $338.6 million in 2026-Q1, indicating a decline in revenue. Despite strategic investments, the financials show limited progress in increasing revenue and profitability.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue and profit goals are met. A miss could hurt investor confidence.
Confirms:Earnings per share (EPS) meets or exceeds analyst expectations.
Disproves:Earnings per share (EPS) falls short of analyst expectations.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if revenue and profits are improving after the Q1 miss.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings show natural gas and oil sales above $400 million.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows sales below $350 million.
Why it matters: High capex could indicate aggressive growth plans. Investors will assess if this spending translates to higher production.
Confirms:Capex reported at or above $1.5 billion for 2026.
Disproves:Capex reported below $1.4 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: Sector growth trends affect Comstock's performance. A pickup in growth could boost confidence.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth picks up above 6% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth declines below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Better efficiency could help the company make more money. Current trends are mixed.
Confirms:Operating income increases by more than 20% in Q2 compared to Q1.
Disproves:Operating income goes down or stays the same in Q2 compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Production rates from new wells will show if Comstock can maintain or grow output.
Confirms:Average initial production rates from new wells exceed 30 MMcf per day.
Disproves:Average initial production rates from new wells fall below 25 MMcf per day.
Why it matters: Higher costs may lower profits and cash flow. Investors will watch how costs are managed.
Confirms:Production costs per Mcfe exceed $1.00 for two consecutive quarters.
Disproves:Production costs per Mcfe stay below $0.93 for two consecutive quarters.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Comstock Resources, Inc. ("Comstock" or the "Company") announced financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing Comstock's earnings and operating results for this period and other matters is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The earnings press release contains financial measures that are not in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States ("GAAP"). Com…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 11, 2026, Comstock Resources, Inc. ("Comstock" or the "Company") announced financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release announcing Comstock's earnings and operating results for this period and other matters is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The earnings press release contains financial measures that are not in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States ("GA…
“Comstock's production cost per Mcfe in the first quarter averaged $0.93 per Mcfe.”
“Comstock's production cost per Mcfe in the fourth quarter averaged $0.77 per Mcfe.”
“Comstock's natural gas and oil sales in the first quarter of 2026 were $338.6 million.”
“Natural gas and oil sales, including realized hedging losses, were $364 million for the quarter.”