Comstock Resources, Inc. (CRK)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$14.13+1.15%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Comstock Resources, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-25.9% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.53 → 0.39 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	476.89M
EPS	—	0.092
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.85B
EPS	—	0.311
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.76B
EPS	—	0.393

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capex of $1.4B to $1.5B in 2026	A primary condition in Comstock Resources, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is between $1.4B and $1.5B.	Intact	Capex falls below $1.4B in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company reiterated its 2026 capex guidance of $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion consistently from 2025-Q4 through 2026-Q2. This aligns with actual capital expenditures reported, indicating disciplined capital allocation and delivery on stated guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Production cost per Mcfe near $0.93 in 2026-Q1	A primary condition in Comstock Resources, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is <= $0.93 per Mcfe.	Broken	Cost per Mcfe rises above $0.93 next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Natural gas and oil sales near $338.6M in 2026-Q1	A primary condition in Comstock Resources, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $338.6 million.	Broken	Sales fall below $338.6M next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue and net income declined significantly from $787M and $281M in 2025-Q4 to $353M and $8.8M in 2026-Q2 respectively. Despite management's focus on increasing revenue and profitability, the financial results show a declining trajectory over the period. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.39

$1.08 → $0.39 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.76B

$2.36B → $1.76B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.08	$2,358,811,680	8 / 7
2026-07-25	$1.08	$2,358,811,680	8 / 7
2026-07-26	$0.76	$2,435,364,935	5 / 5
2026-07-27	$1.08	$2,358,811,680	8 / 7
2026-07-28	$1.08	$2,358,811,680	8 / 7
2026-07-29	$1.08	$2,358,811,680	8 / 7
2026-07-30	$1.08	$2,358,811,680	8 / 7
2026-07-31	$0.73	$2,346,464,935	5 / 5
2026-08-01	$0.73	$2,346,464,935	5 / 5
2026-08-02	$0.98	$2,223,523,100	9 / 8
2026-08-03	$0.98	$2,223,523,100	9 / 8
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$2,306,161,878	4 / 6
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$2,306,161,878	4 / 6
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$2,306,161,878	4 / 6
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$2,306,161,878	4 / 6
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$2,306,161,878	4 / 6
2026-08-09	$0.96	$2,225,157,400	9 / 8
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$2,306,161,878	4 / 6
2026-08-11	$0.95	$2,224,157,400	9 / 8
2026-08-12	$0.95	$2,224,157,400	9 / 8
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$2,306,161,878	4 / 6
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$2,306,161,878	4 / 6
2026-08-15	$0.72	$2,306,161,878	5 / 6
2026-08-16	$0.72	$2,306,161,878	5 / 6
2026-08-17	$0.72	$2,306,161,878	5 / 6
2026-08-18	$0.72	$2,306,161,878	5 / 6
2026-08-19	$0.72	$2,306,161,878	5 / 6
2026-08-20	$0.68	$2,311,661,878	5 / 6
2026-08-21	$0.65	$2,311,661,878	5 / 6
2026-08-22	$0.65	$2,311,661,878	5 / 6
2026-08-23	$0.65	$2,311,661,878	5 / 6
2026-08-24	$0.65	$2,311,661,878	5 / 6
2026-08-25	$0.65	$2,278,961,877	5 / 6
2026-08-26	$0.65	$2,278,961,877	5 / 6
2026-08-27	$0.65	$2,278,961,877	5 / 6
2026-08-28	$0.65	$2,278,961,877	5 / 6
2026-08-29	$0.65	$2,278,961,877	5 / 6
2026-08-30	$0.65	$2,278,961,877	5 / 6
2026-08-31	$0.65	$2,278,961,877	5 / 6
2026-09-01	$0.65	$2,278,961,877	5 / 6
2026-09-02	$0.58	$1,961,374,176	5 / 6
2026-09-03	$0.58	$1,961,374,176	5 / 5
2026-09-04	$0.58	$1,961,374,176	5 / 5
2026-09-05	$0.58	$1,961,374,176	5 / 5
2026-09-06	$0.58	$1,961,374,176	5 / 5
2026-09-07	$0.58	$1,961,374,176	5 / 5
2026-09-08	$0.58	$1,961,374,176	5 / 5
2026-09-09	$0.57	$1,888,790,842	5 / 5
2026-09-10	$0.57	$1,864,207,659	5 / 5
2026-09-11	$0.57	$1,864,207,659	5 / 5
2026-09-12	$0.57	$1,864,207,659	5 / 5
2026-09-13	$0.57	$1,864,207,659	5 / 5
2026-09-14	$0.57	$1,864,207,659	5 / 5
2026-09-15	$0.57	$1,864,207,659	5 / 5
2026-09-16	$0.55	$1,853,040,992	5 / 5
2026-09-17	$0.55	$1,854,124,326	5 / 5
2026-09-18	$0.55	$1,854,124,326	5 / 5
2026-09-19	$0.55	$1,854,124,326	5 / 5
2026-09-20	$0.53	$1,853,790,992	5 / 5
2026-09-21	$0.53	$1,853,790,992	5 / 5
2026-09-22	$0.53	$1,853,790,992	5 / 5
2026-09-23	$0.53	$1,853,790,992	5 / 5
2026-09-24	$0.53	$1,853,790,992	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$0.53	$1,853,790,992	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$0.54	$1,848,114,762	6 / 5
2026-09-27	$0.54	$1,848,114,762	6 / 6
2026-09-28	$0.54	$1,848,114,762	6 / 6
2026-09-29	$0.54	$1,848,114,762	6 / 6
2026-09-30	$0.54	$1,848,114,762	6 / 6
2026-10-01	$0.54	$1,848,114,762	6 / 6
2026-10-02	$0.54	$1,848,122,608	6 / 6
2026-10-03	$0.54	$1,847,416,731	6 / 6
2026-10-04	$0.54	$1,847,416,731	6 / 6
2026-10-05	$0.54	$1,847,416,731	6 / 6
2026-10-06	$0.54	$1,847,416,731	6 / 6
2026-10-07	$0.53	$1,838,339,808	6 / 6
2026-10-08	$0.53	$1,838,339,808	6 / 6
2026-10-09	$0.53	$1,838,339,808	6 / 6
2026-10-10	$0.53	$1,838,339,808	6 / 6
2026-10-11	$0.53	$1,838,339,808	6 / 6
2026-10-12	$0.53	$1,838,339,808	6 / 6
2026-10-13	$0.53	$1,838,339,808	6 / 6
2026-10-14	$0.53	$1,838,339,808	6 / 6
2026-10-15	$0.52	$1,838,339,808	6 / 6
2026-10-16	$0.42	$1,766,400,617	6 / 5
2026-10-17	$0.42	$1,766,400,617	6 / 5
2026-10-18	$0.41	$1,776,913,217	6 / 5
2026-10-19	$0.41	$1,776,913,217	6 / 5
2026-10-20	$0.41	$1,776,913,217	6 / 5
2026-10-21	$0.41	$1,774,913,217	6 / 5
2026-10-22	$0.41	$1,767,814,541	6 / 5
2026-10-23	$0.41	$1,767,814,563	6 / 5
2026-10-24	$0.39	$1,758,714,563	6 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	10	3
2026-06-01	1	9	3
2026-07-01	1	10	3
2026-08-01	1	10	2
2026-09-01	1	12	2
2026-10-01	1	12	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 15 · prior Aug 19

$15.00 → $13.00-13.3%

JefferiesSep 25

$14.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$8.25$16.50

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capex of $1.4B to $1.5B in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Production cost per Mcfe near $0.93 in 2026-Q1Published status: Broken
Natural gas and oil sales near $338.6M in 2026-Q1Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-55.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Comstock Resources, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CRK is a cyclical energy producer whose multi-year view depends on execution and sector conditions. Earnings quality is rated robust and management stable, but recent financial performance is neutral and below its industry cohort, so the thesis remains on watch.

What's priced into Comstock Resources, Inc.

The valuation evidence labels CRK cheap, but also shows it at a premium to peers, with a meaningful expectations gap and medium model confidence. The evidence flags a turbulent sector regime, but not the broader combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, production growth and operational efficiency have been priorities, with production rising between the first and second quarters of 2026. The SOCAR partnership and drilling joint venture are new capital priorities; the partnership is expected to reduce net debt, while capital spending guidance has been consistent. Earnings remain a risk: CRK missed in May, was in line in July, and the snapshot notes a run of consecutive misses.

What Comstock Resources, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on continued production and efficiency gains, disciplined capital spending, and the planned balance-sheet strengthening. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could sustain the energy-sector tailwind; misses or lower guidance from those peers could weaken it.