Reading CRGY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CRGY free→Reading CRGY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CRGY free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, though the capital stance is capital unfriendly, and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, CRGY is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 44% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $11.03. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
We can't anchor a clean multiple for CRGY right now, so treat our $20 fair value as low-confidence. Analysts: $15–$20. Not investment advice.
(median $19.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-06-11
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 44% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated strong grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
Over the trailing year it converted -6.15x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.59 → $0.61 (+3.4% / 30d). 7 raised, 2 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 79% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 40.8% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$197.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$558.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,234.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Continued revenue growth signals that Crescent Energy is on track with its growth plans.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 15% year over year, continuing the trend from Q1.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below 10% year over year, indicating a slowdown.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CRGY yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 18, 2026, Crescent Energy Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“Crescent Finance”) and a wholly owned subsidiary of Crescent Energy Company (NYSE: CRGY) (“Crescent”), entered into that certain Fifteenth Amendment to Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement Amendment”), which amended Crescent’s existing Credit Agreement, dated as of May 6, 2021 (as amended by the First Amendment to Credit Agreement, dated as of September 24, 2021,…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Exploration & Production.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CRGY Crescent Energy Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
COP ConocoPhillips | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
EOG EOG Resources | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | full | moderate |
OXY Occidental Petroleum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FANG Diamondback Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=329).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth as a key strategic priority.
Enhance operating income through strategic initiatives and cost management.
Focus on effective capital allocation to support strategic goals.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Crescent Energy continues to grow revenue. This is key for investors.
Confirms:Revenue growth reported above 6% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth reported below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: More production shows Crescent is doing well and helps grow revenue.
Confirms:Q2 production averages over 341 MBoe/d. This shows the company is doing well.
Disproves:Q2 production is below 320 MBoe/d. This hints at problems or market issues.
Why it matters: Oil prices affect revenue directly. Big changes can impact financial results.
Confirms:Average realized oil prices fall below $63.75 per barrel.
Disproves:Average realized oil prices rise above $71.00 per barrel.
Why it matters: Crescent Energy has higher operating income. This means they are keeping costs low.
Confirms:Operating income increases by at least 20% year over year in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income does not improve or declines year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: Sector growth affects Crescent's performance. If sector growth picks up, it helps Crescent too.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported above 6% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth reported below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: Finishing this would help cash flow and support investment plans.
Confirms:The company says it has settled the $600 million convertible notes.
Disproves:The offering does not close or is cut back a lot.
Why it matters: A steady or higher dividend shows strong cash flow and support for shareholders.
Confirms:The Board announces a dividend higher than $0.12 per share.
Disproves:The Board cuts or suspends the dividend payment.
Why it matters: The notes might dilute shares. This can affect investor feelings and stock price.
Confirms:Market price remains below the cap price of $22.48, limiting dilution.
Disproves:Market price exceeds the cap price of $22.48, leading to potential dilution.
Why it matters: Sector performance can greatly impact Crescent's growth and profits.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth is speeding up above 10%. This shows a positive change.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth continues to decline or remains flat.
Why it matters: Updates on capital allocation will show if Crescent is managing its funds better. This impacts growth.
Confirms one read:Management shares a clear plan to spend money better.
Confirms the other:No news or a plan that shows bad money management.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Earnings Release On May 4, 2026 , Crescent Energy Company (the “Company”) announced its financial and operating results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 . A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including the exhibit, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exch…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Derivative Settlements For the three months ended March 31, 2026, Crescent Energy Company (the “Company” or “Crescent”) expects to report approximately $40 million of total cash paid on its commodity derivative positions, composed of the following: Three Months Ended March 31, 2026 (1) (in millions) Net cash (paid) received on settlement of derivatives $ (101) Settlement of acquired derivative contracts (2) 61 Total cash (paid) received (3) $ (40…
Entry Into or Amendment of a Material Definitive Agreement Indenture On March 6, 2026, Crescent Energy Company, a Delaware corporation (NYSE: CRGY) (the “Company”), issued $690 million aggregate principal amount of its 2.75% Convertible Senior Notes due 2031 (the “Notes”), which included the exercise in full of the Initial Purchasers’ (as defined below) option to purchase up to an additional $90 million principal amount of Notes. The Notes were issued pursuant to, and are governed by, an inde…