Crescent Energy Company (CRGY)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$13.83+3.75%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Crescent Energy Company’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+21.4% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.18 → 2.65 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.3B
EPS	—	0.613
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	4.92B
EPS	—	2.456
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	6.11B
EPS	—	2.651

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital allocation supports growth without excessive risk	A supporting condition in Crescent Energy Company's published investment case. The stated target is Capital allocation progress score improves above 50%.	Intact	Capital allocation progress score remains below 30%	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow reaches at least $192 million	The company targets free cash flow of $192 million in 2026 and raised capital spending to support growth.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $150 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $685.902M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $192 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 2026685,902,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves toward profitability	Operating income improved from a loss to $327 million in the same period.	Improving	Operating income falls below $200 million in FY26	Operating income: $580.986M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $300 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 2026580,986,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 00410c30-019b-44a9-833e-39b116181309. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows at least 15% year over year	Crescent Energy grew revenue 24% year over year to $1.18 billion in Q1 2026.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 15% in FY26	Revenue growth: 55.34% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=15% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 202655.34303 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 00410c30-019b-44a9-833e-39b116181309. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.65

$2.28 → $2.65 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.11B

$4.71B → $6.11B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.28	$4,708,759,150	13 / 7
2026-07-25	$2.21	$4,601,896,390	13 / 7
2026-07-26	$2.21	$4,601,896,390	13 / 7
2026-07-27	$2.21	$4,601,896,390	13 / 7
2026-07-28	$2.21	$4,601,896,390	13 / 7
2026-07-29	$2.26	$4,600,862,790	13 / 7
2026-07-30	$2.26	$4,600,862,790	13 / 7
2026-07-31	$2.14	$4,569,370,803	7 / 5
2026-08-01	$2.14	$4,569,370,803	7 / 5
2026-08-02	$2.26	$4,600,862,790	13 / 7
2026-08-03	$2.26	$4,600,862,790	13 / 7
2026-08-04	$2.28	$4,612,304,640	13 / 7
2026-08-05	$2.13	$4,567,470,166	7 / 5
2026-08-06	$2.24	$4,597,876,070	13 / 7
2026-08-07	$2.13	$4,547,742,893	8 / 5
2026-08-08	$2.21	$4,593,578,140	13 / 7
2026-08-09	$2.21	$4,593,578,140	13 / 7
2026-08-10	$2.21	$4,593,578,140	13 / 7
2026-08-11	$2.13	$4,547,742,893	8 / 5
2026-08-12	$2.27	$4,593,578,140	12 / 7
2026-08-13	$2.13	$4,547,742,893	8 / 5
2026-08-14	$2.13	$4,547,742,893	8 / 5
2026-08-15	$2.13	$4,547,742,893	7 / 5
2026-08-16	$2.13	$4,547,742,893	7 / 5
2026-08-17	$2.13	$4,547,742,893	7 / 5
2026-08-18	$2.13	$4,547,742,893	7 / 5
2026-08-19	$2.13	$4,547,742,893	7 / 5
2026-08-20	$2.03	$4,534,170,960	7 / 5
2026-08-21	$2.03	$4,534,170,960	7 / 5
2026-08-22	$2.03	$4,534,170,960	7 / 5
2026-08-23	$2.03	$4,534,170,960	7 / 5
2026-08-24	$2.03	$4,534,170,960	7 / 5
2026-08-25	$2.03	$4,534,170,960	7 / 5
2026-08-26	$2.02	$4,527,716,415	7 / 5
2026-08-27	$2.02	$4,527,716,415	7 / 5
2026-08-28	$2.02	$4,527,716,415	7 / 5
2026-08-29	$2.02	$4,527,716,415	7 / 5
2026-08-30	$2.02	$4,527,716,415	7 / 5
2026-08-31	$2.02	$4,527,716,415	7 / 5
2026-09-01	$2.02	$4,527,716,415	7 / 5
2026-09-02	$2.02	$4,527,716,415	7 / 5
2026-09-03	$2.02	$4,527,716,415	7 / 5
2026-09-04	$2.04	$4,525,748,380	8 / 6
2026-09-05	$2.04	$4,525,748,380	8 / 6
2026-09-06	$2.04	$4,525,748,380	8 / 6
2026-09-07	$2.04	$4,525,748,380	8 / 6
2026-09-08	$2.05	$4,525,748,380	8 / 6
2026-09-09	$2.05	$4,525,748,380	8 / 6
2026-09-10	$2.05	$4,525,748,380	8 / 6
2026-09-11	$2.06	$4,534,348,297	8 / 6
2026-09-12	$2.06	$4,534,348,297	8 / 6
2026-09-13	$2.10	$4,565,931,630	8 / 6
2026-09-14	$2.10	$4,565,931,630	8 / 6
2026-09-15	$2.13	$4,565,931,630	8 / 6
2026-09-16	$2.15	$4,578,627,335	8 / 6
2026-09-17	$2.15	$4,578,627,335	8 / 6
2026-09-18	$2.15	$4,578,627,335	8 / 6
2026-09-19	$2.17	$4,578,627,335	8 / 6
2026-09-20	$2.17	$4,576,710,668	8 / 6
2026-09-21	$2.17	$4,576,710,668	8 / 6
2026-09-22	$2.17	$4,576,710,668	8 / 6
2026-09-23	$2.17	$4,576,710,668	8 / 6
2026-09-24	$2.18	$4,576,710,668	8 / 6
2026-09-25	$2.18	$4,576,710,668	8 / 6
2026-09-26	$2.18	$4,576,710,668	8 / 6
2026-09-27	$2.18	$4,576,710,668	8 / 6
2026-09-28	$2.18	$4,576,710,668	8 / 6
2026-09-29	$2.18	$4,577,777,335	8 / 6
2026-09-30	$2.18	$4,577,777,335	8 / 6
2026-10-01	$2.18	$4,577,777,335	8 / 6
2026-10-02	$2.18	$4,577,777,335	8 / 6
2026-10-03	$2.19	$4,584,121,860	8 / 6
2026-10-04	$2.19	$4,584,121,860	8 / 6
2026-10-05	$2.19	$4,584,121,860	8 / 6
2026-10-06	$2.19	$4,584,121,860	8 / 6
2026-10-07	$2.21	$4,605,371,860	8 / 6
2026-10-08	$2.21	$4,605,371,860	8 / 6
2026-10-09	$2.22	$4,605,371,860	8 / 6
2026-10-10	$2.25	$4,580,480,891	8 / 5
2026-10-11	$2.32	$4,580,480,891	8 / 5
2026-10-12	$2.32	$4,580,480,891	7 / 5
2026-10-13	$2.38	$4,595,106,857	8 / 5
2026-10-14	$2.40	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-15	$2.46	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-16	$2.49	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-17	$2.49	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-18	$2.48	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-19	$2.48	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-20	$2.50	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-21	$2.49	$6,109,442,111	7 / 5
2026-10-22	$2.50	$6,105,904,470	7 / 5
2026-10-23	$2.56	$6,110,549,518	8 / 6
2026-10-24	$2.65	$6,113,078,725	7 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	11	3	0
2026-06-01	11	3	0
2026-07-01	12	3	0
2026-08-01	12	3	0
2026-09-01	13	3	1
2026-10-01	14	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

ScotiabankOct 14

$18.00New observation · no comparable prior

UBSOct 12 · prior Sep 14

$19.00 → $18.00-5.3%

$0$10.45$20.90

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital allocation supports growth without excessive riskDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Free cash flow reaches at least $192 millionFree cash flow: $685.902M
Operating income improves toward profitabilityOperating income: $580.986M
Revenue grows at least 15% year over yearRevenue growth: 55.34%

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-34.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Crescent Energy Company outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is an energy-sector growth and execution story, with a cyclical backdrop rather than a low-risk compounder profile. The long-term thesis is intact, supported by recent operating strength, though the evidence snapshot rates earnings quality as loss-making and management as volatile.

What's priced into Crescent Energy Company

The valuation evidence labels expectations as justified, with low fragility rather than a full combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulent conditions. The expectations gap is negative, but the snapshot does not explain its scale in plain terms, so how much optimism is already reflected remains unclear.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show strong momentum: revenue and levered free cash flow rose from the first to the second quarter, and production guidance was raised. Cost measures improved, though operating expense efficiency is marked behind; the recent earnings beats support the thesis, while a reversal of raised guidance would damage management credibility.

What Crescent Energy Company hinges on

Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on sustaining production growth, cash generation, and progress on operating costs without reversing guidance. The sector tailwind depends partly on whether COP, EOG, and OXY continue to report strong results and guide higher, or instead miss and guide lower.