Reading CRC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CRC free→Reading CRC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CRC free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with CRC trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 16% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If CRC cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $56.24. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $57 CRC trades at 14× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $48 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $78–$87. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 17% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -50%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated weak grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.68x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.53 → $1.81 (+18.4% / 30d). 6 raised, 4 cut, 10 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 42.1% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$182.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$361.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,404.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Meeting this guidance shows CRC's ability to manage costs and benefit from higher oil prices.
Confirms:Q2 adjusted EBITDAX was $370 million or more.
Disproves:Q2 adjusted EBITDAX was less than $370 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CRC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. To the extent the information included or incorporated into
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$78.00 – $87.00 (median $84.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Exploration & Production.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CRC California Resources Corporation | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | full | moderate |
COP ConocoPhillips | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
EOG EOG Resources | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | full | moderate |
OXY Occidental Petroleum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FANG Diamondback Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=329).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
CRC plans to increase second half 2026 drilling activity to accelerate development of long-duration oil inventory.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. CRC plans to increase drilling activity in the second half of 2026 to accelerate development. However, revenue declined from $924M in 2025-Q4 to $119M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in financial performance so far.
“CRC announced plans to increase second half 2026 drilling activity.”
“CRC is receiving new drilling permits for its 2026 capital program.”
CRC aims to achieve an adjusted EBITDAX of $1,400-$1,500 million for the full year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDAX increased from $251M in 2025-Q4 to $304M in 2026-Q1, showing progress towards the $1,400-$1,500M target for 2026. The trajectory is delivering against the guidance.
CRC plans to maintain its capital investments within the range of $520-$560 million for 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capital investments were $131M in 2026-Q1, within the increased budget range of $520-$560M for the year. The trajectory is consistent with maintaining the capital investment target.
Aim to achieve net production levels between 149 and 155 MBoe/d for the fiscal year 2026.
Strive to reach adjusted EBITDAX between $970 million and $1,070 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: Achieving this EBITDAX range is crucial for financial health and growth.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDAX results fall within the range of $970-$1,070 million.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDAX results are less than $970 million.
Why it matters: This target is crucial for CRC's growth strategy and shows operational strength.
Confirms:Net production reported at or above 149 MBoe/d.
Disproves:Net production reported below 149 MBoe/d.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth picks up, it could help CRC improve its performance. This would signal a positive shift in the energy sector.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth exceeds 6% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: Staying within this range shows CRC's commitment to disciplined spending.
Confirms:Total capital investments are from $520 million to $560 million.
Disproves:Total capital investments are more than $560 million.
Why it matters: Staying within this range shows CRC's commitment to growth while managing costs.
Confirms:Q2 capital investments were between $120 million and $140 million.
Disproves:Q2 capital investments reported outside the range of $120 to $140 million.
Why it matters: Successful completion will strengthen CRC's balance sheet and fund debt redemption.
Confirms:The offering closes successfully and funds are used to redeem the 2029 notes.
Disproves:The offering fails to close or funds are not used for the intended redemption.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company is improving or still losing money. Investors will focus on revenue and profit trends.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings show revenue growth above 6% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows continued revenue decline or losses.
Why it matters: This target is important for CRC's growth. It shows how well they operate.
Confirms:Net production reaches or exceeds 175 MBoe/d by Q4 2026.
Disproves:Net production falls below 149 MBoe/d by year-end.
Why it matters: Changes in the credit agreement may affect CRC's money management. This is key for handling debt and running operations.
Confirms one read:New terms in the credit agreement improve borrowing conditions or reduce costs.
Confirms the other:New terms worsen borrowing conditions or increase costs.
Other Events. On June 16, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the commencement of a proposed private offering of $550 million in aggregate principal amount of senior unsecured notes due 2035 (the “Notes”). The Company intends to use the net proceeds from this offering, together with borrowings under its revolving credit facility and/or cash on hand to fund the redemption of all outstanding $550 million in aggregate principal amount of its 8.250% senior unsecured notes due 2029…
Other Events. On June 16, 2026, California Resources Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the pricing of its private offering of $550 million in aggregate principal amount of its 7.250% senior notes due 2035 at par. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, California Resources Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial condition and results of operations for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report on Form 8-K, and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 14, 2026, California Resources Corporation (the "Company") entered into an amendment (the "Ninth Amendment") to the Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of April 26, 2023 (as amended, restated, amended and restated, supplemented or otherwise modified from time to time), with Citibank, N.A., as administrative agent and collateral agent, and the banks, financial institutions and other lending institutions from time to time parties…
“Raising 2026E adjusted EBITDAX guidance by 42% to $1,450 million.”
“Adjusted EBITDAX expected to range between $970-$1,070 million for 2026.”
“Increased capital budget range to $520 - $560 million.”
“Capital investments expected to range between $430-$470 million.”
“Capital investments expected to range between $430-$470 million.”