California Resources Corporation (CRC)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$54.53+2.96%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge California Resources Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-10.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.01 → 3.61 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.02B
EPS	—	1.342
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	3.72B
EPS	—	4.176
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	3.64B
EPS	—	3.606

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDAX of $1.4-$1.5 billion for 2026	It aims for adjusted EBITDAX of $1.4-$1.5 billion in 2026.	Broken	Adjusted EBITDAX falls below $1.4 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDAX grew from $304 million in 2026-Q1 to $338 million in 2026-Q2. Management raised full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDAX guidance midpoint from $1,070 million in 2025-Q4 to $1,450 million in 2026-Q1, indicating delivering progress consistent with stated targets. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Capital investments within $520-$560 million for 2026	Capital investments are maintained within $520-$560 million.	Intact	Capital investments exceed $560 million or fall below $520 million in FY26	Capital expenditures: $149M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: within $520-$560 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 2026149,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capital investments were $131 million in 2026-Q1 and increased to $149 million in 2026-Q2. Management reaffirmed the full-year 2026 capital investment guidance range of $520 to $560 million, showing consistent discipline and delivery within the targeted range. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Increased drilling activity in second half of 2026	California Resources plans to increase drilling in the second half of 2026.	Improving	No increase in drilling activity in second half of 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.61

$3.67 → $3.61 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.67	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-25	$3.67	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-26	$3.67	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-27	$3.84	$3,591,023,070	9 / 5
2026-07-28	$3.84	$3,591,023,070	9 / 5
2026-07-29	$3.84	$3,591,023,070	9 / 5
2026-07-30	$3.67	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-31	$3.67	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-01	$3.67	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-02	$3.84	$3,591,023,070	9 / 5
2026-08-03	$3.84	$3,591,023,070	9 / 5
2026-08-04	$3.67	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-05	$3.84	$3,591,023,070	9 / 5
2026-08-06	$3.84	$3,591,023,070	9 / 5
2026-08-07	$3.67	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-08	$3.84	$3,591,023,070	9 / 5
2026-08-09	$3.84	$3,591,023,070	9 / 5
2026-08-10	$3.67	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-11	$3.84	$3,591,023,070	9 / 5
2026-08-12	$3.67	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-13	$4.08	$3,639,561,300	9 / 6
2026-08-14	$3.67	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-15	$3.67	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-16	$3.67	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-17	$3.67	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-18	$3.67	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-19	$3.67	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-20	$3.88	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-21	$3.88	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-22	$3.95	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-23	$3.95	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-24	$3.95	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-25	$4.00	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-26	$4.00	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-27	$4.00	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-28	$4.00	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-29	$4.00	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-30	$4.00	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-31	$4.00	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-01	$4.00	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-02	$4.00	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-03	$4.15	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-04	$4.15	$3,672,140,728	6 / 5
2026-09-05	$4.15	$3,672,140,728	7 / 5
2026-09-06	$4.15	$3,672,140,728	7 / 5
2026-09-07	$4.15	$3,672,140,728	7 / 5
2026-09-08	$4.15	$3,672,140,728	7 / 5
2026-09-09	$4.15	$3,672,140,728	7 / 5
2026-09-10	$4.11	$3,667,497,444	7 / 5
2026-09-11	$4.11	$3,667,497,444	7 / 5
2026-09-12	$4.11	$3,667,497,444	7 / 5
2026-09-13	$4.18	$3,708,679,263	7 / 5
2026-09-14	$4.18	$3,708,679,263	7 / 5
2026-09-15	$4.17	$3,708,861,081	7 / 5
2026-09-16	$4.11	$3,715,356,082	7 / 5
2026-09-17	$4.11	$3,715,356,082	7 / 5
2026-09-18	$4.11	$3,715,356,082	7 / 5
2026-09-19	$4.11	$3,715,356,082	7 / 5
2026-09-20	$4.04	$3,671,674,264	7 / 6
2026-09-21	$4.04	$3,671,674,264	7 / 6
2026-09-22	$4.01	$3,651,419,719	7 / 6
2026-09-23	$4.01	$3,651,419,719	7 / 6
2026-09-24	$4.01	$3,651,419,719	7 / 6
2026-09-25	$4.01	$3,651,419,719	7 / 6
2026-09-26	$4.01	$3,651,419,719	7 / 6
2026-09-27	$4.01	$3,651,419,719	7 / 6
2026-09-28	$4.01	$3,651,419,719	7 / 6
2026-09-29	$4.01	$3,639,927,251	7 / 6
2026-09-30	$4.01	$3,639,927,251	7 / 6
2026-10-01	$4.01	$3,639,927,251	7 / 6
2026-10-02	$4.01	$3,639,927,251	7 / 6
2026-10-03	$3.98	$3,639,927,251	7 / 6
2026-10-04	$4.03	$3,639,927,251	7 / 6
2026-10-05	$4.03	$3,639,927,251	7 / 6
2026-10-06	$4.03	$3,639,927,251	7 / 6
2026-10-07	$4.03	$3,639,927,251	7 / 6
2026-10-08	$4.03	$3,639,927,251	7 / 6
2026-10-09	$4.03	$3,639,927,251	7 / 6
2026-10-10	$4.03	$3,639,927,251	7 / 6
2026-10-11	$3.97	$3,617,199,978	7 / 6
2026-10-12	$3.97	$3,617,199,978	7 / 6
2026-10-13	$3.88	$3,612,702,315	7 / 6
2026-10-14	$3.80	$3,608,102,315	7 / 6
2026-10-15	$3.73	$3,630,102,315	7 / 6
2026-10-16	$3.82	$3,635,738,679	7 / 6
2026-10-17	$3.82	$3,635,738,679	7 / 6
2026-10-18	$3.66	$3,618,110,875	7 / 5
2026-10-19	$3.66	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-20	$3.66	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-21	$3.66	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-22	$3.66	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-23	$3.61	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-24	$3.61	Unavailable	6 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	11	1
2026-06-01	11	0
2026-07-01	11	0
2026-08-01	11	0
2026-09-01	12	1
2026-10-01	12	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDAX of $1.4-$1.5 billion for 2026Published status: Broken
Capital investments within $520-$560 million for 2026Capital expenditures: $149M
Increased drilling activity in second half of 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-29.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

California Resources Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is an energy-sector company with a growth-through-drilling thesis, rather than a proven durable compounder, because earnings quality is loss-making and recent performance is weak. The long-term thesis state is watch, with medium confidence, despite management delivering on several stated priorities.

What's priced into California Resources Corporation

The valuation evidence is mixed: CRC is described as cheap versus peers, yet it also carries a substantial peer premium. The expectations gap is negative, while the priced-in assessment says the setup is justified and has low fragility, rather than reflecting the full combination of weak results, expensive valuation, and sector turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, three recent earnings misses and a record of consecutive misses leave results at risk, and another guidance cut would add a meaningful concern. Over the multi-year view, drilling activity and capital investment are increasing, adjusted EBITDAX rose from the first to the second quarter of 2026, and management has reaffirmed its annual investment range and raised its guidance midpoint.

What California Resources Corporation hinges on

The thesis depends on CRC sustaining drilling execution and delivering its 2026 adjusted EBITDAX and capital investment plans. Near term, a guidance cut or more earnings misses could weaken the operating case, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as COP, EOG, and OXY would support the sector backdrop.