Reading COLL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track COLL free→Reading COLL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track COLL free→NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been neutral, and the company is capital-friendly in its capital moves. However, risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with COLL trading above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 57% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $34.19. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $34 COLL trades at 5× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $80 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 57% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 4.41x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated robust grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.75 → $1.75 (+0.3% / 30d). 2 raised, 3 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$140.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$396.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,884.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Completing the acquisition on time is important. It helps get expected revenue and EBITDA gains.
Confirms:The AZSTARYS acquisition closes by the end of Q2 2026.
Disproves:The acquisition is delayed beyond Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for COLL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. As previously disclosed, on March 19, 2026, Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. (the “ Company ”), entered into an Equity Purchase Agreement (the “ Purchase Agreement ”) with Corium Therapeutics Holdings, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“ Commave Seller ”), and Corium, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“ Corium Seller ” and together with Commave Seller, the “ Seller Parties ”). On May 12, 2026, pursuant to the Purchase Agreeme…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Pharmaceuticals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
COLL Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | expensive | low |
MRK Merck & Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PFE Pfizer | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | fair | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Finalize the acquisition of Corium Therapeutics to enhance growth and product offerings.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives and acquisitions.
Improve operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Why it matters: Meeting this target would prove the financial gains from the AZSTARYS acquisition.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA for 2026 reaches $500 million or more.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA for 2026 is less than $475 million.
Why it matters: If operating income stays the same or goes down, it may show cost management issues. This would hurt overall profits.
Confirms:Operating income growth is below 10% year over year in the next earnings release.
Disproves:Operating income growth exceeds 10% year over year in the next earnings release.
Why it matters: Strong revenue from AZSTARYS would show that the acquisition helps growth.
Confirms:AZSTARYS makes over $50 million in net revenue in the second half of 2026.
Disproves:AZSTARYS revenue falls below $50 million in the second half of 2026.
Why it matters: Key executives leaving may change what Collegium plans to do and how it performs.
Confirms:New leaders that help improve company plans and operations.
Disproves:There may be ongoing problems or bad results after the executive changes.
Why it matters: This will show if Collegium is meeting its growth targets after the acquisition.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: High growth in JORNAY PM shows strong market demand and good sales strategies.
Confirms:JORNAY PM revenue growth exceeds 30% year-over-year in the next quarter.
Disproves:JORNAY PM revenue growth drops below 20% year-over-year.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in Collegium's performance. This would raise concerns about the impact of the Corium acquisition on future sales.
Confirms:Revenue growth reported below 10% year over year in the next earnings release.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above 10% year over year in the next earnings release.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is being furnished, not filed, under
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. 2026 Inducement Plan On May 11, 2026, the Company’s board of directors adopted the Company’s 2026 Inducement Plan (the “ Inducement Plan ”), pursuant to which the Company may grant non-qualified stock options, stock appreciation rights, restricted stock units, restricted stock awards, unrestricted stock awards, and dividend equivalent rights with r…
Departure of Directors or Principal Officers; Election of Directors Director Nominee On April 6, 2026, the board of directors (“Board”) of Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. (the “Company”) approved the nomination of Michael Donovan to stand for election at the Company’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders (the “Annual Meeting”). Mr. Donovan, 60, has served as an audit Partner at Ernst & Young LLP (“EY”) since 2002. He has held several leadership roles at EY including Office Managing Partner of E…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Equity Purchase Agreement On March 19, 2026, Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. (the “ Company ”), entered into an Equity Purchase Agreement (the “ Purchase Agreement ”) with Corium Therapeutics Holdings, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“ Commave Seller ”), and Corium, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“ Corium Seller ” and, together with Commave Seller, the “ Seller Parties ” and each, a “ Seller Party ”). Pursuant to the Purchase A…