Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. (COLL)

NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-10-23

$22.96-2.30%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	223.59M
EPS	—	1.983
FY 2026 · Annual
AZSTARYS revenue	$65M–$75M	—
Product revenue	$825M–$855M	—
Revenue	—	833.11M
EPS	—	7.459
EBITDA	$445M–$470Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	844.53M
EPS	—	7.259

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Complete acquisition of Corium Therapeutics	A supporting condition in Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Acquisition finalized.	Intact	Acquisition fails or is reversed	Acquisition completed May 12, 2026 vs mid-2026 target COLL completed the Corium Therapeutics acquisition on May 12, 2026, as disclosed in M&A activity events. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves to at least $30.9 million in Q1 2026	Operating income rose from $21.7 million to $30.9 million in one year.	Broken	Operating income falls below $25 million in next four quarters	Operating income: $3.698M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $30.9 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20263,698,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1c02a023-0f4b-46ec-a5c1-da72adee4d6a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches about $880 million in 2026	Collegium raised revenue guidance to about $880 million for 2026.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $820 million in FY26	Revenue: $199.878M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$880 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026199,878,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1c02a023-0f4b-46ec-a5c1-da72adee4d6a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$0.84B

Unavailable → $0.84B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$850,115,857	4 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$850,115,857	4 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$850,115,857	4 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$850,115,857	4 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$850,115,857	4 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$850,115,857	4 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$850,115,857	4 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$850,115,857	4 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$850,115,857	4 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$850,115,857	4 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$850,115,857	4 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$850,115,857	4 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$846,546,143	4 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$846,545,143	4 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$846,545,143	4 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$846,545,143	4 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$844,382,714	4 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$844,382,714	4 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$844,382,714	4 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$844,382,714	4 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$844,525,571	4 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$844,525,571	4 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$844,525,571	4 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$844,525,571	4 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$844,525,571	4 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$844,525,571	4 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$844,525,571	4 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$844,525,571	4 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$844,525,571	4 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$844,525,571	4 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	5	1
2026-06-01	5	1
2026-07-01	5	1
2026-08-01	4	1
2026-09-01	7	1
2026-10-01	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Operating income improves to at least $30.9 million in Q1 2026Published status: Broken
Revenue reaches about $880 million in 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-56.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

COLL is a smaller-cap healthcare company with a growth opportunity in its ADHD portfolio and mixed performance in pain treatments. Its long-term thesis is intact, but the signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable.

What's priced into Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.

The evidence points to COLL being cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations may be a little ahead of the outlook. Confidence in that valuation read is low, and no fragility warning is present.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, ADHD growth has been strong: JORNAY PM revenue rose 41% year over year in 2026 Q2, with AZSTARYS adding revenue after its acquisition. Pain portfolio revenue fell 9%, and the Nucynta decline outweighed Belbuca growth. Management raised product revenue guidance after the acquisition, but recent guidance had also been lowered, and a recent material agreement termination adds uncertainty.

What Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. hinges on

A guidance increase next quarter after the earlier cut would support the case that the business has recovered its footing. Continued weakness in job growth could weigh on cyclical healthcare names, while stronger results and guidance from sector peers could support the sector backdrop. The key business question is whether ADHD growth can offset ongoing pressure in the pain portfolio.