Reading CLMT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CLMT free→Reading CLMT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CLMT free→NASDAQMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed, and it is priced below typical for the sector. Peer multiples imply a price about 20% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as both could significantly impact CLMT's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $32.69. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $33 CLMT trades at 25× p/e, in line with its 21× p/e peer median. Our $28 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 20% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.28x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
16 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Materials names rated volatile grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=235).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.01 → $-0.06 (-500.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$167.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$362.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,281.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This report can indicate consumer spending trends. Strong retail sales can signal better demand for Calumet's products.
Confirms one read:Retail sales are up a lot compared to last month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decline or show weak growth compared to the previous month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CLMT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 8, 2026, Calumet, Inc. reported results of operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, pursuant to a press release. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information contained in this report shall not be deemed “filed” for the purpose of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or otherwise subject to the liabili…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Specialty Chemicals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CLMT Calumet, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | full | elevated |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | full | moderate |
ECL Ecolab | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PPG PPG Industries | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LYB LyondellBasell | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | — | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Plan to use additional liquidity from offerings to reduce 2028 notes when call premium steps down.
Calumet issued $150M in 9.75% Senior Notes due 2031 in a private placement.
Entered into a Ninth Amendment to the Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement to manage financial obligations.
Why it matters: If revenue grows, it may show a recovery in the materials sector. This could make investors feel better about Calumet.
Confirms:Materials sector revenue growth turns positive after being near -1 percent.
Disproves:Revenue growth in the materials sector is still negative. This shows it is still shrinking.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 23, 2026, Jennifer G. Straumins notified the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Calumet, Inc. (the “Company”) of her decision not to stand for re-election to the Board and to retire at the end of her term, which expires at the Company’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. Her decision not to stand for re-election and to retire from the B…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 17, 2026, Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. (the “Partnership”) and Calumet Finance Corp. (“Finance Corp.” and, together with the Partnership, the “Issuers”), each a subsidiary of Calumet, Inc. (the “Company”), issued $150.0 million aggregate principal amount of the Issuers’ 9.75% Senior Notes due 2031 (the “Additional Notes”) in a private placement conducted pursuant to Rule 144A and Regulation S under the Securities Act of 1933, a…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Purchase Agreement On March 12, 2026, Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. (the “Partnership”), Calumet Finance Corp. (“Finance Corp.” and, together with the Partnership, the “Issuers”), Calumet, Inc. (the “Company”), Calumet GP, LLC (the “General Partner”) and certain subsidiary guarantors named therein (the “Subsidiary Guarantors”) entered into a purchase agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with BofA Securities, Inc. as representative of the…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation. The information set forth in