Calumet, Inc. (CLMT)

NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-10-23

$49.31-0.02%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Calumet, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.27B
EPS	—	1.015
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	5.09B
EPS	—	-2.069
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	4.94B
EPS	—	2.678

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Reduce 2028 notes using additional liquidity	Calumet plans to reduce debt by using new cash.	Improving	No meaningful reduction of 2028 notes by 2028	$150M redeemed vs material reduction target Calumet redeemed $150M of 2028 notes; S&P upgraded rating to B- on stronger earnings. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Manage financial obligations with new credit agreements	The company is improving its financial management.	Improving	Credit terms worsen or liquidity tightens in 2026	S&P upgrade to B-; $150M debt redemption S&P upgraded rating to B-; company redeemed $150M of 2028 notes using additional liquidity. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve at least 10% revenue growth	A primary condition in Calumet, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY.	Improving	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$4,808,518,860	1 / 6
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$4,808,518,860	1 / 6
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$4,808,518,860	1 / 6
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$4,808,518,860	1 / 6
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$4,808,518,860	1 / 6
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$4,808,518,860	1 / 6
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$4,810,423,360	1 / 6
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$4,810,423,360	1 / 6
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$4,810,423,360	1 / 6
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$4,810,423,360	1 / 6
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$4,810,423,360	1 / 6
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$4,810,423,360	1 / 6
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$4,802,568,880	1 / 6
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	2	4
2026-06-01	2	4
2026-07-01	2	4
2026-08-01	2	4
2026-09-01	2	4
2026-10-01	2	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Goldman SachsOct 21 · prior Aug 18

$45.00 → $57.00+26.7%

$0$31.35$62.70

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve at least 10% revenue growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 6, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

1 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-16.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Calumet, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a higher-risk recovery and growth thesis, not a steady compounder. The thesis is in a watch state: recent execution is improving in several areas, but financial performance remains below its industry cohort and company momentum has weakened.

What's priced into Calumet, Inc.

CLMT is described as cheap versus peers, with a modest expectations gap and a justified priced-in assessment. Confidence in the valuation view is medium, while the evidence snapshot does not provide enough detail to judge how much market expectations depend on future improvement.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results may remain uneven: recent earnings surprises have been erratic and are trending down, although the estimated miss risk is low. Over the multi-year view, improved cash flow and debt reduction, higher Montana Renewables earnings, and stronger Specialty Products and Solutions profitability show progress on management’s stated priorities; the sector backdrop remains a headwind.

What Calumet, Inc. hinges on

The thesis depends on whether cash generation and debt reduction continue, and whether the gains in renewables and specialty products persist. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strength or weakness from materials-sector peers could add to or remove a sector tailwind.