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Track CAH free→Cardinal Health (CAH)
NYSEHealth CareMedical DistributionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$226.39+1.13%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 24% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. The outlook hinges on whether CAH cuts guidance after a recent raise, which could damage credibility, and on the performance of sector bellwethers like MCK, COR, and HSIC. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Medical Distribution
- Market cap
- $52.43B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1994-02-09
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-18
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $226.39. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$178.28consensus
Range $162.30 – $284.30
vs price: +28% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$458.74consensus
Range $394.81 – $594.87
vs price: -50% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $226 CAH trades at 27× p/e — 1.4× the 19× p/e peer median, and above its own 16× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $180 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $240–$275. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
27.3x
peer 19.2x · own history 16.4x
Premium
1.4x peer
1.7x its own history
Growth the price needs
26%
our forecast 18%
Our fair value
$179.53
range $163.98 – $285.20
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 26% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 18%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
93rd pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 3.67x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated robust grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
89th pctl · Health Care
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral16 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish14 analysts, 82% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $2.41 → $2.41 (-0.0% / 30d). 9 raised, 2 cut, 14 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 82% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.5 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme biologics/biosimilars.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -74.7% avg surprise
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$92.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$240.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,042.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 11d
Watch for Q3 FY26 non-GAAP EPS guidance confirmation
Why it matters: The EPS guidance range shows strong earnings growth and management's confidence.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q3 FY26 non-GAAP EPS lands within the raised guidance of $10.70 to $10.80.
Disproves:Q3 FY26 non-GAAP EPS falls below $10.70.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CAH yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth re-acceleration in Health Care
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like MCK, COR, and HSIC keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting CAH and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for CAH and other Healthcare names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If CAH reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-04-30), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like MCK, COR, and HSIC start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping CAH and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If CAH misses again next quarter like this past one (a big miss of -28% on the 2026-03-31 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-301mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 30, 2026, Cardinal Health, Inc. (the "Company") issued a news release announcing its results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the news release is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-2.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.