Cardinal Health (CAH)

NYSEHealth CareMedical - DistributionSnapshot 2026-10-15

$254.06+0.14%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Cardinal Health’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

14.09 → 14.07 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS guidance at about $10.75 in fiscal Q2 2026	EPS guidance rose from $9.4 to $10.75.	Intact	EPS guidance falls below $9.4 next fiscal year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow guidance at about $3.5 billion in fiscal Q2 2026	Free cash flow guidance increased to $3.5 billion.	Intact	Free cash flow guidance falls below $3.25 billion next fiscal year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth at about 11-19% YoY	A supporting condition in Cardinal Health's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year	Revenue growth: 6.15% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 11, 20266.148706 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$14.07

$13.56 → $14.07 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$281.74B

$298.21B → $281.74B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$13.56	$298,208,115,077	5 / 13
2026-07-25	$13.56	$298,208,115,077	5 / 13
2026-07-26	$13.59	$297,845,444,271	5 / 13
2026-07-27	$13.59	$297,845,444,271	5 / 13
2026-07-28	$13.59	$297,845,444,271	5 / 13
2026-07-29	$13.59	$297,845,444,271	5 / 13
2026-07-30	$13.59	$297,845,444,271	5 / 13
2026-07-31	$13.59	$297,845,444,271	5 / 13
2026-08-01	$13.59	$297,845,444,271	5 / 13
2026-08-02	$13.59	$297,845,444,271	5 / 13
2026-08-03	$13.59	$297,845,444,271	5 / 13
2026-08-04	$13.59	$297,845,444,271	5 / 13
2026-08-05	$13.59	$297,845,444,271	5 / 13
2026-08-06	$13.59	$297,845,444,271	5 / 13
2026-08-07	$13.59	$297,845,444,271	5 / 13
2026-08-08	$13.59	$297,845,444,271	5 / 13
2026-08-09	$13.59	$297,845,444,271	5 / 13
2026-08-10	$13.59	$297,845,444,271	5 / 13
2026-08-13	$13.59	$297,720,042,420	13 / 13
2026-08-14	$13.59	$297,845,444,271	5 / 13
2026-08-15	$13.59	$297,845,444,271	9 / 13
2026-08-16	$13.59	$297,845,444,271	9 / 13
2026-08-17	$13.59	$297,845,444,271	9 / 13
2026-08-18	$13.59	$297,845,444,271	10 / 13
2026-08-19	$13.59	$297,845,444,271	10 / 13
2026-08-20	$14.09	$282,577,795,808	10 / 14
2026-08-21	$14.09	$282,577,795,808	9 / 11
2026-08-22	$14.09	$282,577,795,808	9 / 11
2026-08-23	$14.09	$282,577,795,808	9 / 11
2026-08-24	$14.09	$282,577,795,808	9 / 11
2026-08-25	$14.09	$282,577,795,808	9 / 11
2026-08-26	$14.09	$282,577,795,808	10 / 12
2026-08-27	$14.09	$282,577,795,808	10 / 12
2026-08-28	$14.09	$282,577,795,808	10 / 12
2026-08-29	$14.09	$282,577,795,808	10 / 12
2026-08-30	$14.09	$282,577,795,808	10 / 12
2026-08-31	$14.09	$282,577,795,808	10 / 12
2026-09-01	$14.09	$282,577,795,808	10 / 12
2026-09-02	$14.09	$282,577,795,808	10 / 12
2026-09-03	$14.09	$282,577,795,808	10 / 12
2026-09-04	$14.09	$282,577,795,808	10 / 12
2026-09-05	$14.09	$282,577,795,808	10 / 12
2026-09-06	$14.09	$282,577,795,808	10 / 12
2026-09-07	$14.09	$282,577,795,808	10 / 12
2026-09-08	$14.09	$282,577,795,808	10 / 12
2026-09-09	$14.09	$282,577,795,808	10 / 12
2026-09-10	$14.09	$282,577,795,808	10 / 12
2026-09-11	$14.09	$282,577,795,808	10 / 12
2026-09-12	$14.09	$282,577,795,808	10 / 12
2026-09-13	$14.09	$282,577,795,808	10 / 12
2026-09-14	$14.09	$282,577,795,808	10 / 12
2026-09-15	$14.09	$282,577,795,808	10 / 12
2026-09-16	$14.09	$282,577,795,808	10 / 12
2026-09-17	$14.09	$282,577,795,808	10 / 12
2026-09-18	$14.09	$282,577,795,808	10 / 12
2026-09-19	$14.09	$282,577,782,475	10 / 12
2026-09-20	$14.09	$282,577,782,475	10 / 12
2026-09-21	$14.09	$282,577,782,475	10 / 12
2026-09-22	$14.09	$282,577,782,475	10 / 12
2026-09-23	$14.09	$282,577,782,475	10 / 12
2026-09-24	$14.09	$282,577,782,475	10 / 12
2026-09-25	$14.09	$282,577,782,475	10 / 12
2026-09-26	$14.09	$282,577,782,475	10 / 11
2026-09-27	$14.09	$282,577,782,475	9 / 11
2026-09-28	$14.09	$282,577,782,475	9 / 11
2026-09-29	$14.07	$283,139,846,822	9 / 11
2026-09-30	$14.07	$283,139,846,822	9 / 11
2026-10-01	$14.07	$283,139,846,822	9 / 11
2026-10-02	$14.07	$283,139,846,822	9 / 11
2026-10-03	$14.07	$283,139,846,822	9 / 11
2026-10-04	$14.07	$283,139,846,822	9 / 11
2026-10-05	$14.07	$283,139,846,822	9 / 11
2026-10-06	$14.07	$281,849,846,822	9 / 11
2026-10-07	$14.07	$281,849,846,822	9 / 11
2026-10-08	$14.07	$281,742,453,965	9 / 12
2026-10-09	$14.07	$281,742,453,965	9 / 12
2026-10-10	$14.07	$281,742,453,965	9 / 12
2026-10-11	$14.07	$281,742,453,965	9 / 12
2026-10-12	$14.07	$281,742,453,965	9 / 12
2026-10-13	$14.07	$281,742,453,965	9 / 12
2026-10-14	$14.07	$281,742,453,965	9 / 12
2026-10-15	$14.07	$281,742,453,965	9 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	15	3
2026-06-01	14	3
2026-07-01	14	3
2026-08-01	15	3
2026-09-01	15	3
2026-10-01	14	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS guidance at about $10.75 in fiscal Q2 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Free cash flow guidance at about $3.5 billion in fiscal Q2 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growth at about 11-19% YoYRevenue growth: 6.15%

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Cardinal Health outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on consistent earnings growth. The current thesis state is intact, backed by strong segment profit growth and increased guidance for fiscal 2027.

What's priced into Cardinal Health

The market currently prices CAH at a premium compared to peers, reflecting expectations of continued earnings growth. However, there is an expectations gap, indicating that some future performance may not be fully accounted for.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, as management is on track with key priorities like increasing earnings per share and improving cash flow. There is a moderate risk due to potential misses, but the low probability of such events suggests stability.

What Cardinal Health hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to meet or exceed guidance and the performance of sector bellwethers. Additionally, broader economic conditions, such as job growth, will influence CAH's performance.