Reading BWMN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BWMN free→Reading BWMN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BWMN free→NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 40% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how bellwethers perform. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $31.58. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $32 BWMN trades at 21× p/e, below its 35× p/e peer median. Our $53 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 40% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 17%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.25x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.53 → $0.46 (-14.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 5 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$173.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$376.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,993.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If peers like RTX continue strong performance, it may highlight Bowman’s weaknesses.
Confirms:RTX's composite insight score goes up above 20.
Disproves:RTX's composite insight score drops below 15.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BWMN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Bowman Consulting Group Ltd. (“Bowman” or the “Company) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Report. The information in this Report under this item, including the exhibit, is provided under
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Construction & Engineering.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BWMN Bowman Consulting Group Ltd. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
PWR Quanta Services | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FIX Comfort Systems USA | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
EME Emcor | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | full | moderate |
MTZ MasTec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Bowman has raised its net revenue guidance for the full year 2026 to $520-$540 million.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $465-$480M to $520-$540M for 2026. Despite the earnings miss in 2026-Q1, Bowman continues to project higher revenue, indicating confidence in growth trajectory.
“Bowman raised net revenue guidance for full year 2026: May 2026 $520 - $540 MM.”
“Bowman raised net revenue guidance for full year 2026: March 2026 $495 - $510 MM.”
“the table below shows Bowman’s guidance for fiscal year 2026: November 2025 $465 - $480 MM.”
Bowman secured a $146.7 million contract amendment with a US government agency, increasing the total contract value to $177.7 million.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Bowman secured a $146.7 million contract amendment, increasing the total contract value to $177.7 million. This strategic move enhances Bowman's revenue base and aligns with its growth objectives.
Bowman aims to manage operating income effectively, with a focus on maintaining profitability.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income fell from $4,189,000 in 2025-Q4 to $104,000 in 2026-Q1, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability. This suggests limited progress in managing operating income effectively.
“Operating income was $104,000 in 2026-Q1.”
“Operating income was $4,189,000 in 2025-Q4.”
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the industrials sector picks up, it could boost Bowman’s outlook.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth is speeding up to about 8% each year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays below 5% year over year.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 17, 2026, Robert Hickey notified Bowman Consulting Group Ltd. (“Bowman” or the “Company”) of his planned retirement from the Company, effective as of December 31, 2026, and his resignation as Chief Legal Officer, Secretary and Executive Vice-President of the Company effective as of May 1, 2026. For the period between Mr. Hickey’s resignati…
Other Events On March 13, 2026, Bowman Consulting Group Ltd ("Bowman") entered into a $146.7 million contract amendment with an agency of the US government, bringing the value of the total contract to $177.7 million. The original contract was entered into in December 2025. Bowman's services are expected to be completed over 36 months.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 4, 2026, Bowman Consulting Group Ltd. (“Bowman” or the “Company) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025 and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Report. The information in this Report under this item, including the exhibit, is provided under
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 17, 2026, Bowman Consulting Group Ltd. (“Bowman” or the “Company”) announced that Gary Bowman intends to retire from the Company and resign as a director of the Company later in 2026. In connection therewith and pursuant to the terms of the Executive Employment Agreement, dated as of April 27, 2021, between the Company and Mr. Bowman (a…
“Bowman entered into a $146.7 million contract amendment with a US government agency.”