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Track BOW free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, BOW is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 21% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $27.23. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $27 BOW trades at 15× p/e — 1.4× the 11× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $24 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 14% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 5.98x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.47 → $0.47 (+1.0% / 30d). 5 raised, 2 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 71% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -1.3% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$131.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$383.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,287.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth has been strong, but a drop could signal a slowdown. This affects Bowhead's growth outlook.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains at or above the median of 15% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BOW yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Property & Casualty Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BOW Bowhead Specialty Holdings, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | full | elevated |
CB Chubb Limited | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
PGR Progressive Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRV Travelers Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | fair | low |
ALL Allstate | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on driving a 20% growth in Gross Written Premiums (GWP) in 2026, primarily through the Casualty division.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue increased from $122.7M in 2025-Q1 to $155.7M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the 20% GWP growth target. The trajectory shows delivering growth, aligning with management's expectations.
“We continue to expect a GWP growth of around 20% in 2026 driven by our Casualty division.”
“We expect a GWP growth of around 20% in 2026.”
Maintain the earnings per share (EPS) guidance at $0.48 for the fiscal year 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. EPS guidance is maintained at $0.48 for 2026. The net income for 2026-Q1 was $16.0M, supporting the EPS target. The trajectory is consistent with management's guidance.
Focus on enhancing reinsurance agreements to support growth and risk management.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company entered into an amendment to its reinsurance agreement, indicating a strategic focus on enhancing reinsurance arrangements. This move supports growth and risk management, aligning with management's strategic priorities.
“BICI entered into Amendment No. 1 to the Amended and Restated Quota Share Reinsurance Agreement.”
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Amendment to the Amended and Restated Quota Share Reinsurance Agreement On May 4, 2026, Bowhead Insurance Company, Inc. (“BICI”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc., (the “Company”), entered into Amendment No. 1 (the “Amendment”) to the Amended and Restated Quota Share Reinsurance Agreement, dated as of May 23, 2024, between American Family Mutual Insurance Company, S.I. (“AFMIC”), and the Company (the “Amended and Restated…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 24, 2026, Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months and twelve months ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On November 26, 2025 (the “Effective Date”), Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (the “Company”), entered into a senior revolving credit agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) with the lenders and issuing banks party from time to time thereto and with PNC Bank, National Association (“PNC”), as administrative agent (the “Administrative Agent”). The Credit Agreement provides for a senior secured revolving credit facility in the aggregate principal amount of $…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. 7.750% Senior Notes due 2030 On November 25, 2025, Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (the “Company”) completed the public offering (the “Notes Offering”) of $150,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 7.750% Senior Notes due 2030 (the “Notes”). The Notes were registered pursuant to the Company’s registration statement on Form S-3 (File No. 333-287859) (the “Registration Statement”) and were offered pursuant to the prospectus supplement, dated Novem…
“Net income of $16.0 million, or $0.48 per diluted share.”