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Track BG free→Bunge Global (BG)
NYSEConsumer StaplesFarm ProductsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· this month
$123.04-3.25%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been volatile, with frequent changes, while the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include the potential for guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers like ADM, TSN, and CALM. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Staples
- Industry
- Farm Products
- Market cap
- $24.67B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2024-02-22
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-29
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $123.04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$142.47consensus
Range $120.86 – $339.25
vs price: -14% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$274.33consensus
Range $255.71 – $308.62
vs price: -55% below
Method agreement — · 3 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $123 BG trades at 17× p/e, below its 18× p/e peer median. Our $142 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
16.6x
peer 17.5x · own history 15.1x
Premium
0.9x peer
1.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
-14%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$142.47
range $120.86 – $385.15
WhyValuation methods disagree
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 14% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
41st pctl · Consumer Staples
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 0.86x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated fragile grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
9th pctl · Consumer Staples
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatile35 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated volatile grew net income 42% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=368).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +15.9% / 30d, n=6for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.66 → $1.93 (+15.9% / 30d). 5 raised, 0 cut, 6 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 89% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer staples is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.0 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme private-label/value.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$126.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$274.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,539.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- score change · valuation_scoresmall change
Valuation rose by 10.7 points (from 30.9 to 41.6).
As of June 15, 2026, valuation rose. The sector backdrop fell. Risk remained moderate, while earnings quality was described as fragile. Management was noted as volatile.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceMonthsactive 22d
Watch for share buyback program announcement
Why it matters: Announcing a buyback program shows confidence in the company's value.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Management shares news about a new share buyback plan.
Disproves:No news about a buyback program after the next earnings call.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BG yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for changes in consumer spending trends post-FOMC meeting
- Watch for Consumer Staples revenue growth to speed up above 5%.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like ADM, TSN, and CALM keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Staples sector momentum should keep lifting BG and other Consumer Staples names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If BG beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a very large beat off a near-zero prior-year base on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit BG and other Consumer Staples names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If BG reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-04-29), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like ADM, TSN, and CALM start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Staples tailwind helping BG and other Consumer Staples names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-291mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 29, 2026, Bunge Global SA ("Bunge") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and incorporated herein by reference. In accordance with general instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Item 2.02, including exhibits, is furnished pursuant to Items 2.02 and 9.01 and shall not be deemed "filed" for the purposes of…
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-15
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.