Bunge Global (BG)

NYSEConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$106.14-0.81%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Bunge Global’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Viability of share buyback program	Share buyback plans signal capital return focus.	Under Pressure	Buyback program canceled or materially reduced due to cash constraints	Qualitative: Cash strain reported vs sustained buyback target Cash strain raised dilution risks, but recent credit extensions and bond issuance indicate ongoing capital access. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Full-year adjusted EPS at or above $9.25 in FY26	Full-year EPS guidance raised to about $9.25, showing management confidence.	Intact	EPS falls below $9.25 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management raised full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance from $7.50-$8.00 in 2025-Q4 to $9.25-$9.75 in 2026-Q2, reflecting improved market conditions and execution. Net income per share increased from $0.35 in 2026-Q1 to $3.47 in 2026-Q2, supporting the raised outlook. The trajectory is delivering with upward revisions and improved quarterly earnings. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Stable leadership post-CEO transition	A supporting condition in Bunge Global's published investment case. The stated target is CEO transition completed with stable leadership by end of FY26.	Intact	Prolonged leadership instability or key executive departures continue	Qualitative: Orderly succession confirmed CLO and CAO transitions are orderly with named successors; no sudden executive departures reported. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Progress on Viterra acquisition integration	A primary condition in Bunge Global's published investment case. The stated target is Meaningful operational and commercial synergies realized by end of FY26.	Intact	Integration progress stalls or synergies fail to materialize by FY26	Qualitative: Integration lifts outlook Bunge stated at a consumer conference that Viterra integration lifts the growth outlook, reinforcing the integration thesis. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Management consistently emphasized completing and integrating the Viterra acquisition to expand capabilities and capture synergies. Operational data shows soybean processing volumes increased from 8.1 million metric tons in 2026-Q1 to 11.5 million in 2026-Q2, and segment EBIT grew from $209 million to $804 million, reflecting delivery on integration benefits. The trajectory is delivering as volumes and earnings improved post-acquisition. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$11.29 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$95.05B

$93.86B → $95.05B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$11.29	$93,862,263,600	7 / 7
2026-07-25	$11.29	$93,862,263,600	7 / 7
2026-07-26	$11.29	$93,862,263,600	7 / 7
2026-07-27	$11.29	$93,862,263,600	7 / 7
2026-07-28	$11.29	$93,862,263,600	7 / 7
2026-07-29	$11.32	$93,862,263,600	7 / 7
2026-07-30	$11.32	$93,862,263,600	7 / 7
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$95,037,715,711	4 / 5
2026-08-01	$11.27	$93,710,254,460	7 / 7
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$95,037,715,711	4 / 5
2026-08-03	$11.26	$93,710,254,460	7 / 7
2026-08-04	$11.26	$93,710,254,460	7 / 7
2026-08-05	$11.26	$93,710,254,460	7 / 7
2026-08-06	$11.26	$93,710,254,460	7 / 7
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$95,037,715,711	4 / 5
2026-08-08	$11.26	$93,710,254,460	7 / 7
2026-08-09	$11.26	$93,710,254,460	7 / 7
2026-08-10	$11.26	$93,710,254,460	7 / 7
2026-08-11	$11.26	$93,710,254,460	7 / 7
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$95,037,715,711	4 / 5
2026-08-13	$11.34	$94,330,927,750	7 / 7
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$95,037,715,711	4 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$95,037,715,711	4 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$95,037,715,711	4 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$95,037,715,711	4 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$95,037,715,711	4 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$95,037,715,711	4 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$95,147,103,290	4 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$95,045,570,649	4 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$95,045,570,649	4 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$95,045,570,649	4 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$95,045,570,649	4 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$95,045,570,649	4 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$95,045,570,649	4 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$95,045,570,649	4 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$95,045,570,649	4 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$95,045,570,649	4 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$95,045,570,649	4 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	8	1
2026-06-01	8	1
2026-07-01	8	1
2026-08-01	8	1
2026-09-01	8	1
2026-10-01	8	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Viability of share buyback programPublished status: Under Pressure
Full-year adjusted EPS at or above $9.25 in FY26Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-21.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Bunge Global outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on integrating the Viterra acquisition. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent financial performance has not met industry standards, and management's execution will be critical moving forward.

What's priced into Bunge Global

The market appears to have a neutral view on BG's valuation, as it is considered cheap compared to peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully anticipate the potential benefits from the Viterra integration.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to improve as management continues to focus on integration and has recently raised earnings guidance. However, there is a moderate risk of missing expectations due to past erratic earnings surprises.

What Bunge Global hinges on

The thesis hinges on the successful integration of Viterra and the ability to maintain or improve earnings guidance. Additionally, external factors such as inflation trends and economic conditions will play a significant role in BG's performance.