Vital Farms, Inc. (VITL)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-10-29
$8.67-6.67%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
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Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Staples is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Operating income improves from -$2.3 million in Q1 2026: Comparison needs review.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 16% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 16% growth a year, above the roughly 6% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 78% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskVITL depends on profitable growth, but recent performance is weak and revenue growth reversed. Revenue fell 10.1% year over year in Q2 FY2026, following 15.4% growth in Q1. Q2 adjusted earnings missed consensus, extending the recent run of earnings misses. VITL trades at 44× P/E versus the 16× peer median; expectations look full. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 47%. The operating-income comparison needs review, so it does not confirm a broken pillar. Peer multiples imply a price about 16% below where it trades; the thesis is on watch, and this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. VITL is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 10 analysts currently covering VITL (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 4 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for VITL in the last 4 months.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VITL Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Agricultural Products & Services — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put VITL next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Increase revenue
Guidance cut indicates revenue growth may be at risk.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $8.67
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $8.67.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Class action could distract from management's focus.
Potential fraud class action could impact reputation.