Reading VITL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VITL free→Reading VITL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQConsumer StaplesFarm ProductsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 40% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. If VITL cuts guidance on the next call, that could lead to a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $10.70. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $11 VITL trades at 10× p/e, below its 17× p/e peer median. Our $18 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $10–$34. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 40% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 26%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.21x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated fragile grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.20 → $-0.43 (-321.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 27% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$255.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$615.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $8,420.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth stabilizes, it means recovery from recent egg price problems.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VITL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 7, 2026, Vital Farms, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 29, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K (this “Current Report”) and is incorporated herein by reference. The information provided in this Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securit…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$10.00 – $34.00 (median $14.00) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-05-11
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Agricultural Products & Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VITL Vital Farms, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 23 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ADM Archer Daniels Midland | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | full | moderate |
BG Bunge Global | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | fair | moderate |
DAR Darling Ingredients | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
INGR Ingredion | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Vital Farms plans to wind down and discontinue its butter product offerings by the end of fiscal 2026.
Vital Farms aims to improve operating income through strategic initiatives.
Vital Farms aims to increase revenue through strategic growth initiatives.
Why it matters: Lower capital spending shows better fit with demand and cost control.
Confirms:Capital spending is reported below $75 million for the fiscal year.
Disproves:If capital spending goes over $75 million, it may mean overspending.
Why it matters: Ending the butter business will help focus on egg products and increase profits.
Confirms:Management says the butter business will end by the close of fiscal 2026.
Disproves:Delays or higher costs may happen with the butter business exit.
Why it matters: Better operating income is key for the company's finances. It shows good cost control.
Confirms:Operating income has a big rise from the last quarter.
Disproves:Operating income stays the same or goes down from the last quarter.
Why it matters: A rise in gross margin shows better cost control and pricing plans.
Confirms:Gross margin is expected to be over 30% in the next quarters.
Disproves:Gross margin remains below 30% for two consecutive quarters.
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On May 1, 2026, management of the Company elected to wind down and discontinue its butter product offerings to focus on its core egg product categories, with such discontinuation expected to be substantially completed by the end of fiscal 2026. In connection with the discontinuation plan, the Company expects to incur butter inventory-related charges, costs, and write-downs, packaging write-downs, and other related discontinuation costs. The C…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangement of Certain Officers. On February 20, 2026, Matthew O’Hayer, the Company’s founder, Executive Chairperson and a member of the Company's Board of Directors (the “Board”) informed the Company and the Board of his resignation as Executive Chairperson, as a member of the Board and as an employee, effective February 24, 2026 (the “Effective Date”). Mr. O’Hayer’s resignation is not due to any disagr…
of this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any of the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set fort…
Other Events. On February 26, 2026, the Company announced that the Board has authorized and approved a plan to repurchase up to $100.0 million of shares (the “Stock Repurchase Program”) of the Company’s outstanding common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (“Common Stock”). Under the Stock Repurchase Program, the Company intends to repurchase shares of Common Stock from time to time, including, without limitation, pursuant to one or more written repurchase plans intended to qualify for the pr…