Reading INGR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track INGR free→Reading INGR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track INGR free→NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but it has a capital-unfriendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which could impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 41% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $101.48. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $102 INGR trades at 10× p/e, below its 17× p/e peer median. Our $175 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $114–$122. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 41% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.34x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.76 → $2.76 (+0.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 5 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 0 maintained. 38% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$78.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$164.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,658.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Approval is important for Ingredion. It will help them grow in the market.
Confirms:Tate & Lyle shareholders will vote for the acquisition at the next meeting.
Disproves:Shareholders might reject the acquisition or vote no.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for INGR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Bridge Loan Agreement On June 8. 2026, the Company entered into a 364-Day Bridge Loan Agreement, dated as of June 8, 2026, among the Company, the lenders party thereto from time to time, and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (“JPMorgan”), as Administrative Agent, Initial Lender, Sole Bookrunner, and Sole Arranger (the “Bridge Loan Agreement”), pursuant to which JPMorgan, as the initial lender thereunder, and the other lenders from time to time have committed to provide the Company with a 364-day seni…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$114.00 – $122.00 (median $120.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-07
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Agricultural Products & Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
INGR Ingredion | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
ADM Archer Daniels Midland | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
BG Bunge Global | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | fair | moderate |
DAR Darling Ingredients | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
VITL Vital Farms, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Ingredion plans to cease operations at its Cabo, Brazil manufacturing facility by June 30, 2026.
Ingredion expects to record approximately $36 million in pre-tax, non-cash impairment charges in Q2 2026.
Ingredion expects its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS to be in the range of $10.45 to $11.15.
Why it matters: These charges show how the Cabo facility closing affects finances. It lowers overall profits.
Confirms:The company reports $36 million in impairment charges in its Q2 2026 earnings.
Disproves:Impairment charges are less than $36 million or not reported in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Ending operations will change costs and efficiency. This will affect future profits.
Confirms:Work at the Cabo facility will stop by the end of June 2026.
Disproves:Operations continue beyond the June deadline or face delays.
Why it matters: This shows management's view is correct. It shows earnings are stable.
Confirms one read:Adjusted EPS for Q2 2026 meets or exceeds the lower end of the guidance range.
Confirms the other:Adjusted EPS for Q2 2026 falls below the guidance range of $10.45 to $11.15.
Why it matters: Recovery means better performance in the U.S./CAN segment. This segment has had problems.
Confirms:The Argo plant returns to normal by Q3 2026.
Disproves:More delays in recovery at the Argo facility hurt U.S./CAN results.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (d) On June 7, 2026, the Company’s Board elected Kenneth Escoe to serve as a director of the Company, with a term beginning effective July 1, 2026. The Board has determined that Mr. Escoe qualifies as an independent director under the corporate responsibility standards of the New York Stock Exchange . Mr. Escoe, age 51, is the Executive Vice Presid…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The description of the Bridge Loan Agreement set forth in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Ingredion Incorporated (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s condensed consolidated financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 (the “Press Release”). A copy of the Company’s Press Release is being furnished as Exhibit 99 and hereby incorporated by reference. The Company will host a conference call Tuesday, May 5, 2026 at 8 a.m. CT/ 9 a.m. ET to discuss the first quarter financial results. The…
In connection with the cessation of operations at the Cabo manufacturing facility, the Company expects to record approximately $36 million in pre-tax, non-cash impairment charges in the second quarter of 2026 relating to fixed asset and inventory write-downs. Forward-Looking Statements This current report on Form 8-K contains or may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of…