Ingredion (INGR)

NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$95.70-1.52%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Ingredion’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

11.21 → 11.08 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.75B
EPS	—	2.653
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	7.19B
EPS	—	10.405
Capital expenditure	$450M–$490M	—
Operating cash flow	$700M–$800M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	7.33B
EPS	—	11.077

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EPS between $10.45 and $11.15	Adjusted EPS is expected near $11.15 in 2026.	Broken	adjusted EPS falls below $10.45 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Successful integration of $3.6B Tate & Lyle acquisition	The $3.6B Tate & Lyle acquisition strengthens its market position.	Intact	Acquisition integration fails or materially delays growth	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Manage impairment and facility closure costs near $36M in Q2 2026	A supporting condition in Ingredion's published investment case. The stated target is ~$36M impairment charges.	Intact	impairment charges exceed $50M in Q2 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Total company revenue near $9.9B	A primary condition in Ingredion's published investment case. The stated target is ~$9.9B.	Intact	revenue falls below $9.0B in FY27	Revenue: $1.85B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$9.9B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20261,850,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9cc3d8b6-3aa4-46a8-bc6a-43824d33eccb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$11.08

$11.56 → $11.08 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$7.46B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$11.56	$7,457,997,900	7 / 6
2026-07-25	$11.55	$7,459,497,900	7 / 6
2026-07-26	$11.55	$7,459,497,900	7 / 6
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-28	$11.55	$7,459,497,900	7 / 6
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-30	$11.55	$7,459,497,900	7 / 6
2026-07-31	$11.55	$7,459,497,900	7 / 6
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-02	$11.55	$7,459,497,900	7 / 6
2026-08-03	$11.55	$7,459,497,900	7 / 6
2026-08-04	$11.55	$7,459,497,900	7 / 6
2026-08-05	$11.55	$7,459,497,900	7 / 6
2026-08-06	$11.55	$7,459,497,900	7 / 6
2026-08-07	$11.26	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-08	$11.35	$7,323,124,220	7 / 6
2026-08-09	$11.35	$7,323,124,220	7 / 6
2026-08-10	$11.26	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-12	$11.26	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-13	$11.26	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-14	$11.26	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-15	$11.26	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-16	$11.26	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-17	$11.26	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-18	$11.26	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-19	$11.26	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-20	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-21	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-22	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-23	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-24	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-25	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-26	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-27	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-28	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-29	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-30	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-31	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-01	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-02	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-03	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-04	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-05	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-06	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-07	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-08	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-09	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-10	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-11	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-12	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-13	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-14	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-15	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-16	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-17	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-18	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-19	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-20	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-21	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-22	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-23	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-24	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-25	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-26	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-27	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-28	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-29	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-30	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-01	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-02	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-03	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-04	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-05	$11.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-06	$11.13	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-07	$11.13	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-08	$11.13	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-09	$11.13	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-10	$11.13	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-11	$11.13	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-12	$11.13	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-13	$11.13	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-14	$11.13	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-15	$11.12	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-16	$11.12	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-17	$11.12	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-18	$11.12	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-19	$11.12	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-20	$11.12	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-21	$11.12	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-22	$11.12	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-23	$11.09	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-24	$11.08	Unavailable	5 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	3	4
2026-06-01	3	5
2026-07-01	2	5
2026-08-01	2	5
2026-09-01	2	5
2026-10-01	2	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 14 · prior Aug 5

$118.00 → $115.00-2.5%

UBSOct 5 · prior May 7

$114.00 → $104.00-8.8%

$0$64.90$129.80

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EPS between $10.45 and $11.15Published status: Broken
Successful integration of $3.6B Tate & Lyle acquisitionQualitative condition
Manage impairment and facility closure costs near $36M in Q2 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Total company revenue near $9.9BRevenue: $1.85B

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-21.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Ingredion outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

INGR is a food-ingredients business with a moderate-risk, neutral-quality profile, rather than a clear high-growth story. Its long-term thesis is intact, with recent momentum improving, but management execution is volatile and confidence in the evidence is medium.

What's priced into Ingredion

The valuation evidence describes INGR as cheap versus peers, while the priced-in assessment is marked justified and fragility is low. The expectations gap is negative, so the evidence does not point to a large cushion from expectations; valuation alone does not resolve execution risks.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results have been mixed overall, despite an August earnings beat and a 22.4-point improvement in company momentum. Texture & Healthful Solutions has continued to grow, while the Tate & Lyle acquisition has advanced toward integration and is expected by management to add to adjusted earnings per share after closing. A recent pattern of misses, possible guidance cuts, and costs tied to the Brazil facility closure remain risks.

What Ingredion hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued segment growth, successful Tate & Lyle integration, and execution of the facility closure without further disruption. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs could weigh on cyclical businesses, while stronger results and guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.