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Aquestive Therapeutics, Inc. (AQST)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· this week
$4.22+1.20%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, with management's recent track record being volatile and capital moves described as unfriendly. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed, and risk is elevated due to a sector backdrop that is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 32% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers like TEVA, HLN, and ZTS. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
- Market cap
- $523.13M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2007-05-14
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-11
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $4.22. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$2.57consensus
Range $1.75 – $3.38
vs price: +64% above
Method agreement — · 2 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$2.64consensus
Range $1.80 – $3.47
vs price: +60% above
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $4.22, AQST's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 11× p/s (4.2× the 3× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~62% near-term growth vs our ~-4% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $2.60 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
10.8x
peer 2.5x · own history —
Premium
4.2x peer
Growth the price needs
62%
our forecast -4%
Our fair value
$2.60
range $1.80 – $3.40
WhyPeer anchor understates a real premiumOptionality our model can't price
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensivefair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 62% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
42nd pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted 0.64x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatile11 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -4.3% / 30d, n=2for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.12 → $-0.12 (-4.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.5 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme biologics/biosimilars.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$165.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$602.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,061.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'expensive'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AQST yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth re-acceleration in Health Care
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like TEVA, HLN, and ZTS keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting AQST and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If AQST raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-13), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If AQST beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a big beat of +62% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If AQST cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-13), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like TEVA, HLN, and ZTS start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping AQST and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-131mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 13, 2026, Aquestive Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its reported financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026 and provided an update on recent developments in its business. A copy of the Company’s press release and the attached financial schedules are attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report On Form 8-K and incorporated in this
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.