Aquestive Therapeutics, Inc. (AQST)

NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-10-23

$4.00-3.15%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Aquestive Therapeutics, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	11.75M
EPS	—	-0.132
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	51.04M
EPS	—	-0.486
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	66.59M
EPS	—	-0.5

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Resubmit Anaphylm NDA in Q3 2026	The company plans to resubmit its Anaphylm drug application in Q3 2026.	Recovered	NDA resubmission delayed beyond Q3 2026	NDA resubmitted Sep 23, 2026 vs Q3 2026 target FDA accepted Anaphylm NDA resubmission on Oct 15, 2026, following the initial filing on Sep 23, 2026. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Manage EBITDA loss to $30-$35 million in 2026	A primary condition in Aquestive Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is -35 to -30 USD millions loss.	Intact	EBITDA loss exceeds $35 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve $46-$50 million revenue in 2026	A primary condition in Aquestive Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 46-50 USD millions.	Intact	Revenue falls below $44 million in FY26	Revenue: $13.819M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 46-50 USD millions. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 11, 202613,819,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4afeed7b-9342-455e-99d8-b3ff16024131. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$0.07B

$0.07B → $0.07B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$71,716,667	3 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$71,716,667	3 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$71,716,667	3 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$71,716,667	3 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$71,916,570	1 / 7
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$71,916,570	1 / 7
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$71,916,570	1 / 7
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$71,916,570	1 / 7
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$71,916,570	1 / 7
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$71,916,570	1 / 7
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$71,916,570	1 / 7
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$71,916,570	1 / 7
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$71,916,570	1 / 7
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$71,916,570	1 / 7
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$71,716,667	3 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$71,916,570	1 / 7
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$71,916,570	1 / 7
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$71,916,570	1 / 7
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$71,916,570	1 / 7
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$71,916,570	1 / 7
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$71,916,570	1 / 7
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$71,716,667	3 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$71,716,667	4 / 6
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$71,716,667	4 / 6
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$71,716,667	4 / 6
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$71,716,667	4 / 6
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$71,716,667	4 / 6
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$71,716,667	4 / 6
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$68,057,750	4 / 7
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$68,057,750	4 / 7
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$68,057,750	4 / 7
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$68,057,750	4 / 7
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$67,768,889	4 / 7
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$67,762,444	4 / 7
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$67,762,444	4 / 7
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$67,762,444	4 / 7
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$66,593,333	4 / 7
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$66,593,333	4 / 7
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$66,593,333	4 / 7
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$66,593,333	4 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	0	0
2026-06-01	9	0	0
2026-07-01	9	0	0
2026-08-01	9	0	0
2026-09-01	9	0	0
2026-10-01	9	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

H.C. WainwrightOct 16

$10.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$5.50$11.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Manage EBITDA loss to $30-$35 million in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve $46-$50 million revenue in 2026Revenue: $13.819M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-58.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Aquestive Therapeutics, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative growth and product-development story, not an established earnings compounder. The multi-year view is intact, though the signal recently turned cautious and the evidence is mixed on execution.

What's priced into Aquestive Therapeutics, Inc.

AQST is valued at a sizeable premium to peers, with optionality, or the chance that future products add value, helping explain that premium. The evidence indicates an expectations gap, but confidence in that estimate is low; the premium alone does not point to the broader fragile setup described in the snapshot.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the company remains loss-making and has a notable risk of missing estimates, so the next results and any guidance changes matter. The FDA accepted Anaphylm’s resubmission and set a March 16, 2027 review date, while management has described launch preparation and early AQST-108 study work; the supplied evidence does not establish later delivery on those plans.

What Aquestive Therapeutics, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges first on Anaphylm’s regulatory review and the company’s ability to prepare for a potential launch. A guidance cut would weaken the near-term setup, while continued strength among healthcare peers could support sector momentum; weakening employment data is a separate risk signal.