Reading AMPX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AMPX free→Reading AMPX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AMPX free→NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, AMPX is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 381% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $16.82. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $17, AMPX's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 26× p/s (7.0× the 4× p/s peer median). That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $2.40 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $17–$24. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 602% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.37x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.01 → $-0.02 (-50.4% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$466.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$871.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,641.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector grows faster, it could help Amprius. The company is in a sector that is growing slowly.
Confirms:Reports show that revenue growth in the industrial sector may rise above 5%.
Disproves:The sector growth may keep slowing down with no signs of recovery.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AMPX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and in the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, unless expressly incorporated by specific reference in such filing. The contents…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$17.00 – $24.00 (median $20.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-11
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Electrical Components & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AMPX Amprius Technologies, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | expensive | high |
ETN Eaton Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | full | moderate |
VRT Vertiv | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
EMR Emerson Electric | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BE Bloom Energy Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | high |
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve a revenue of at least $130 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $21.4M in 2025-Q3 to $28.5M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the $130M target. The trajectory shows delivering growth, aligning with management's raised guidance.
“Increasing 2026 revenue outlook to at least $130.0 million, raised from at least $125 million.”
“Expecting 2026 revenue growth of at least 70% to $125 million or more.”
Management is targeting a positive non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA of at least $4 million for 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Despite the reiterated target for positive non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA of at least $4M, the company reported a net income loss of $5.0M in 2026-Q1. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery so far.
“Reiterating targets for net loss below $8.0 million, and positive non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA of at least $4.0 million.”
Management plans to maintain capital expenditure below $10 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. The company has not provided specific capex figures for 2026-Q1, making it difficult to assess progress towards the under $10M target. Recurring focus, narrow delivery so far.
“Capital expenditure is expected to be under $10.0 million.”
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities On May 18 and May 19, 2026, the Company closed the transactions contemplated by the Exchange Agreements and issued an aggregate of 2,726,631 Exchange Shares to the Public Warrant Holders in exchange for the surrender and cancellation of the Exchange Public Warrants. The issuance by the Company of the Exchange Shares was made in reliance on Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), in reliance in part on the repres…
Entry into Material Definitive Agreement On May 6, 2026, Amprius Technologies, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into Warrant Exchange Agreements (the “Exchange Agreements”) with certain institutional holders (the “Public Warrant Holders”) of the Company’s public warrants (the “Exchange Public Warrants”), each of which is exercisable to purchase one share of common stock of the Company, par value $0.0001 per share (“Common Stock”), at an exercise price of $11.50 (the “Exercise Price”) per existing…
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities The disclosures set forth above under
Changes in Registrant’s Certifying Accountant On April 17, 2026, the Audit Committee (the "Audit Committee") of the board of directors of Amprius Technologies, Inc. (the "Company") approved the engagement of Deloitte & Touche LLP ("Deloitte") as the Company's independent registered public accounting firm to audit the Company’s consolidated financial statements for the year ending December 31, 2026, effective as of April 21, 2026. On April 17, 2026, the Audit Committee dismissed BDO USA, P.C.…
“Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be at least $4.0 million.”