Amprius Technologies, Inc. (AMPX)
NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$9.87-5.00%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Amprius aims for $130M revenue in 2026. Revenue grew from $21.4M to $28.5M in recent quarters. Management targets positive adjusted EBITDA of $4M. Capital spending is planned below $10M in 2026.
Fraud allegations hurt trust in the company. The company is losing money now. Leadership selling stock raises confidence concerns.
The market expects about 75% revenue growth. Our fair value is near $2.93, reflecting this growth. The stock price is down 48.7% from its high amid fraud allegations.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA remains negative through FY26
Management is targeting a positive non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA of at least $4 million for 2026.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. The current thesis state is cautious, as the company is navigating through volatility and uncertainty in its financial results.
The market appears to price in a high level of fragility due to the company's expensive valuation, which does not fully account for its weak performance and turbulent conditions. There is an expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully recognize the risks involved.
Management is focused on increasing revenue and achieving positive Adjusted EBITDA, but recent financial performance has been weak. The company has shown some progress, but it remains loss-making, which adds to the overall risk.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers and whether AMPX can maintain its revenue growth while managing costs effectively. Any changes in guidance or performance from these key players could significantly impact AMPX's outlook.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Capital expenditure exceeds $12M in FY26
Breaks if: New fraud allegations or large insider stock sales occur
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $100M in FY26
Management aims to achieve a revenue of at least $130 million for the fiscal year 2026.
In the next 1 to 3 years, AMPX's trajectory will depend on its ability to navigate sector challenges and improve financial performance. Not investment advice.