Amprius Technologies, Inc. (AMPX)

NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$8.18+3.41%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Amprius Technologies, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-22.6% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.05 → 0.04 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	42.22M
EPS	—	0.006
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	140.56M
EPS	—	-0.08
EBITDA	At least $4Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	213.16M
EPS	—	0.036

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Positive non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA of at least $4M in 2026	Management targets positive adjusted EBITDA of $4M.	Improving	Adjusted EBITDA remains negative through FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Keep capital expenditure under $10M in fiscal 2026	A supporting condition in Amprius Technologies, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is <=10 USD_MILLIONS.	Intact	Capital expenditure exceeds $12M in FY26	Capital expenditures: $1.819M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: <=10 USD_MILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20261,819,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management consistently expects capital expenditures to remain under $10 million for 2026. No specific quarterly capex numbers are provided, so progress is qualitative but trajectory is consistent with stated discipline. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain stable leadership and confidence	A supporting condition in Amprius Technologies, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No major insider stock sales or fraud allegations.	Under Pressure	New fraud allegations or large insider stock sales occur	Fraud alleged (May 2026) + $320k insider sale May 2026 news reports fraud allegations and a director selling $320,252 in stock. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve at least $130M revenue in fiscal 2026	A primary condition in Amprius Technologies, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=130 USD_MILLIONS.	Intact	Revenue falls below $100M in FY26	Revenue: $34.032M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=130 USD_MILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202634,032,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 15eb3eae-150f-4499-ab84-eea4adc73613. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.04

$0.06 → $0.04 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.21B

$0.21B → $0.21B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.06	$207,310,700	7 / 10
2026-07-25	$0.06	$207,310,700	7 / 10
2026-07-26	$0.06	$207,310,700	7 / 10
2026-07-27	$0.06	$207,310,700	7 / 10
2026-07-28	$0.06	$207,310,700	7 / 10
2026-07-29	$0.06	$207,310,700	7 / 10
2026-07-30	$0.06	$207,310,700	7 / 10
2026-07-31	$0.06	$207,310,700	7 / 10
2026-08-01	$0.06	$207,310,700	7 / 10
2026-08-02	$0.06	$207,310,700	7 / 10
2026-08-03	$0.06	$207,310,700	7 / 10
2026-08-04	$0.06	$207,310,700	7 / 10
2026-08-05	$0.06	$207,310,700	7 / 10
2026-08-06	$0.06	$207,310,700	7 / 10
2026-08-07	$0.06	$211,062,273	7 / 8
2026-08-08	$0.10	$211,510,200	5 / 10
2026-08-09	$0.10	$211,510,200	5 / 10
2026-08-10	$0.10	$211,510,200	5 / 10
2026-08-11	$0.10	$211,510,200	5 / 10
2026-08-12	$0.10	$211,510,200	5 / 10
2026-08-13	$0.10	$211,510,200	5 / 10
2026-08-14	$0.06	$211,062,273	7 / 8
2026-08-15	$0.06	$211,062,273	6 / 8
2026-08-16	$0.06	$211,062,273	6 / 8
2026-08-17	$0.06	$211,062,273	6 / 8
2026-08-18	$0.06	$211,062,273	6 / 8
2026-08-19	$0.06	$211,062,273	6 / 8
2026-08-20	$0.05	$213,471,818	6 / 8
2026-08-21	$0.05	$213,471,818	6 / 8
2026-08-22	$0.05	$213,471,818	6 / 8
2026-08-23	$0.05	$213,471,818	6 / 8
2026-08-24	$0.05	$213,471,818	6 / 8
2026-08-25	$0.05	$213,471,818	6 / 8
2026-08-26	$0.05	$213,471,818	6 / 8
2026-08-27	$0.05	$213,471,818	6 / 8
2026-08-28	$0.05	$213,471,818	6 / 8
2026-08-29	$0.05	$213,471,818	6 / 8
2026-08-30	$0.05	$213,471,818	6 / 8
2026-08-31	$0.05	$213,471,818	6 / 8
2026-09-01	$0.05	$213,471,818	6 / 8
2026-09-02	$0.05	$213,471,818	6 / 8
2026-09-03	$0.05	$213,471,818	6 / 8
2026-09-04	$0.05	$213,471,818	6 / 8
2026-09-05	$0.05	$213,099,091	6 / 8
2026-09-06	$0.05	$213,099,091	6 / 8
2026-09-07	$0.05	$213,099,091	6 / 8
2026-09-08	$0.05	$213,099,091	6 / 8
2026-09-09	$0.05	$213,099,091	6 / 8
2026-09-10	$0.05	$213,099,091	6 / 8
2026-09-11	$0.05	$213,099,091	6 / 8
2026-09-12	$0.05	$213,099,091	6 / 8
2026-09-13	$0.05	$213,099,091	6 / 8
2026-09-14	$0.05	$213,099,091	6 / 8
2026-09-15	$0.05	$213,099,091	6 / 8
2026-09-16	$0.05	$213,099,091	6 / 8
2026-09-17	$0.05	$213,099,091	6 / 8
2026-09-18	$0.05	$213,099,091	6 / 8
2026-09-19	$0.05	$213,099,091	6 / 8
2026-09-20	$0.05	$213,099,091	6 / 8
2026-09-21	$0.05	$213,099,091	6 / 8
2026-09-22	$0.05	$213,099,091	6 / 8
2026-09-23	$0.05	$213,099,091	6 / 8
2026-09-24	$0.05	$213,099,091	6 / 8
2026-09-25	$0.05	$213,099,091	6 / 8
2026-09-26	$0.05	$213,099,091	6 / 8
2026-09-27	$0.05	$213,099,091	6 / 8
2026-09-28	$0.05	$213,099,091	6 / 8
2026-09-29	$0.05	$213,129,727	6 / 8
2026-09-30	$0.05	$213,129,727	6 / 8
2026-10-01	$0.05	$213,129,727	6 / 8
2026-10-02	$0.05	$213,129,727	6 / 8
2026-10-03	$0.05	$213,129,727	6 / 8
2026-10-04	$0.05	$213,129,727	6 / 8
2026-10-05	$0.05	$213,129,727	6 / 8
2026-10-06	$0.05	$213,129,727	6 / 8
2026-10-07	$0.05	$213,129,727	6 / 8
2026-10-08	$0.05	$213,129,727	6 / 8
2026-10-09	$0.05	$213,129,727	6 / 8
2026-10-10	$0.05	$213,129,727	6 / 8
2026-10-11	$0.05	$213,129,727	6 / 8
2026-10-12	$0.05	$213,129,727	6 / 8
2026-10-13	$0.05	$213,129,727	6 / 8
2026-10-14	$0.05	$213,129,727	6 / 8
2026-10-15	$0.05	$213,129,727	6 / 8
2026-10-16	$0.04	$213,157,583	6 / 9
2026-10-17	$0.04	$213,157,583	6 / 9
2026-10-18	$0.04	$213,157,583	6 / 9
2026-10-19	$0.04	$213,157,583	6 / 9
2026-10-20	$0.04	$213,157,583	6 / 9
2026-10-21	$0.04	$213,157,583	6 / 9
2026-10-22	$0.04	$213,157,583	6 / 9
2026-10-23	$0.04	$213,157,583	6 / 9
2026-10-24	$0.04	$213,157,583	6 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	0	0
2026-06-01	9	0	0
2026-07-01	10	0	0
2026-08-01	10	0	0
2026-09-01	10	0	0
2026-10-01	11	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Canaccord GenuityOct 14

$14.00New observation · no comparable prior

National BankSep 29

$18.00New observation · no comparable prior

H.C. WainwrightSep 29

$18.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$9.90$19.80

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Positive non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA of at least $4M in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Keep capital expenditure under $10M in fiscal 2026Capital expenditures: $1.819M
Maintain stable leadership and confidencePublished status: Under Pressure
Achieve at least $130M revenue in fiscal 2026Revenue: $34.032M

Next proof point

Nov 10, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-66.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Amprius Technologies, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk growth business, not yet a durable profit compounder, because it remains loss-making. The long-term thesis is improving but still unproven: revenue guidance has risen, while positive adjusted EBITDA has not yet been achieved.

What's priced into Amprius Technologies, Inc.

The valuation is about 3.9 times above peers, with a low-confidence model and a negative expectations gap, meaning expectations appear demanding relative to the evidence. The snapshot labels what is priced in as justified and fragility as low, but those signals do not remove the gap between growth expectations and current weak, loss-making results.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth and the raised 2026 outlook support the operating story, while adjusted EBITDA improved from a loss of $1.8 million to a loss of $1.0 million but remains negative. Management is still targeting at least $4 million of adjusted EBITDA and capital expenditure below $10 million for 2026; the company has not yet demonstrated that it can meet the profitability target. Recent performance is weak versus its industry cohort, and the sector backdrop is a headwind.

What Amprius Technologies, Inc. hinges on

The key company-level test is whether AMPX delivers on its raised revenue outlook and reaches positive adjusted EBITDA without reversing guidance. A reversal would also damage management credibility. Sector conditions matter: continued strong results and higher guidance from ETN, VRT, and BE would support the backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.