Reading AMPH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AMPH free→Reading AMPH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AMPH free→NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. However, risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 42% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $19.96. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $20 AMPH trades at 7× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $37 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $19–$22. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 47% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.13x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated robust grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.79 → $0.64 (-18.9% / 30d). 0 raised, 7 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.4% above current price.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$175.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$471.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,525.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: FDA approvals can lead to more revenue. They also improve the product lineup.
Confirms:FDA approval for at least one new product from the pipeline within the next six months.
Disproves:No FDA approvals announced for pipeline products in the next six months.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AMPH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$19.00 – $22.00 (median $20.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-06-03
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Pharmaceuticals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AMPH Amphstar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | expensive | low |
MRK Merck & Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PFE Pfizer | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | full | low |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to prioritize revenue growth as a key strategic focus.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Increase cash flow from operations to support strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means better cost control. It can help future growth.
Confirms:Operating income improves from $6.4 million in Q1 to above $10 million in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income is still under $6.4 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Improved revenue growth signals that the company is gaining momentum. This is key for long-term success.
Confirms:Q2 net revenues exceed $171.2 million, showing growth from Q1.
Disproves:Q2 net revenues are below $171.2 million. This shows ongoing weakness.
Why it matters: More cash flow from operations shows better financial health. This helps growth plans.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations rises above $47.8 million in Q2.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations drops below $47.8 million in Q2.
Entry into Material Definitive Agreement and Amendment of a Material Definitive Agreement. Supply Agreement. On March 3, 2026, (the “Effective Date”), Amphastar Nanjing Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (“ANP”), the Chinese subsidiary of Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (“Amphastar” or, the “Company”), entered into a supply agreement (the “Supply Agreement”) with Nanjing Letop Biotechnology Co., Ltd. (“Letop”). Pursuant to the Supply Agreement, Letop will manufacture and deliver chemical intermediates…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended…
Other Events On March 12, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors authorized a $50 million increase to the Company’s share buyback program, which is expected to continue for an indefinite period of time. The primary goal of the share buyback program is to offset dilution created by the Company’s equity compensation programs. Purchases may be made through the open market and private block transactions pursuant to Rule 10b5-1 plans, privately negotiated transactions, or other means, as determi…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 3, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (“Amphastar” or, the “Company”), entered into executive employment agreements with each of Jacob Liawatidewi, the Company’s Executive Vice President of Corporate Administration Center, Secretary and a member of the board of directors (the “Liawatidewi Employment Agreement”…