Amphstar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMPH)

NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-10-23

$25.14-3.46%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Amphstar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	194.74M
EPS	—	0.795
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	747.32M
EPS	—	2.961
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	783.99M
EPS	—	3.171

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Earnings per share recovery to consensus estimates	A supporting condition in Amphstar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $2.63 for FY 2026.	Improving	EPS falls below $2.0 in FY 2026	Diluted EPS: $0.67 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $2.63 for FY 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20260.67 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d17e07f0-320d-4ee6-b292-fcd618eec582. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improvement through cost control	A primary condition in Amphstar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is operating income >= $20M.	Broken	operating income falls below $13M	Operating income: $39.729M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating income >= $20M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202639,729,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d17e07f0-320d-4ee6-b292-fcd618eec582. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating income declined slightly from $42.2M in 2025-Q4 to $39.7M in 2026-Q2, despite gross margin expansion from 49.6% to 50.8%. Increased manufacturing and operating expenses partly offset margin gains. The trajectory shows limited progress with margin improvement but operating income pressure. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth to at least maintain current levels	A primary condition in Amphstar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $171M quarterly revenue.	Recovered	quarterly revenue falls below $171M	Revenue: $183.903M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $171M quarterly revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026183,903,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d17e07f0-320d-4ee6-b292-fcd618eec582. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $170.5M in 2025-Q1 to $183.9M in 2026-Q2, with a 5% increase in the latest quarter. Management consistently emphasized product launches and pipeline advancement to drive growth. The trajectory shows delivering on revenue growth with modest increases and new product contributions. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain valuation discount to peers	The company has a cheap valuation with a PE of 7.41 versus peers at 25.16.	Intact	PE rises above 15 without earnings growth	P/E (TTM): 9.11x As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 20269.1087 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: AMPH:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$3.00 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.78B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.00	$779,319,420	7 / 6
2026-07-25	$3.00	$779,319,420	7 / 6
2026-07-26	$2.96	$778,695,000	7 / 6
2026-07-27	$3.00	$779,319,420	7 / 6
2026-07-28	$3.00	$779,319,420	7 / 6
2026-07-29	$3.00	$779,319,420	7 / 6
2026-07-30	$2.96	$778,695,000	7 / 6
2026-07-31	$3.00	$779,319,420	7 / 6
2026-08-01	$3.00	$779,319,420	7 / 6
2026-08-02	$2.96	$778,695,000	7 / 6
2026-08-03	$2.96	$778,695,000	7 / 6
2026-08-04	$2.96	$778,695,000	7 / 6
2026-08-05	$2.96	$778,695,000	7 / 6
2026-08-06	$2.96	$778,695,000	7 / 6
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	$2.89	$774,861,670	7 / 6
2026-08-09	$2.89	$774,861,670	7 / 6
2026-08-10	$2.89	$774,861,670	7 / 6
2026-08-11	$3.05	$784,461,760	7 / 6
2026-08-12	$3.05	$784,461,760	7 / 6
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$784,405,420	1 / 6
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	7	0
2026-06-01	0	7	1
2026-07-01	0	6	1
2026-08-01	0	6	1
2026-09-01	0	6	1
2026-10-01	0	6	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Earnings per share recovery to consensus estimatesDiluted EPS: $0.67 per share
Operating income improvement through cost controlPublished status: Broken
Revenue growth to at least maintain current levelsRevenue: $183.903M
Maintain valuation discount to peersP/E (TTM): 9.11x

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-42.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Amphstar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

AMPH is a healthcare business with a growth-focused, execution-dependent multi-year view, rather than a clear turnaround story. The thesis is intact, with recent performance in the top half of its industry, though earnings quality is neutral and risk is elevated.

What's priced into Amphstar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

AMPH is described as cheap versus peers, while the valuation is tagged as justified and has low signs of fragility. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding, but the evidence does not specify exactly what the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth and cash generation appear steady: revenue rose to $183.9 million in 2026-Q2, while cash from operations was stable across the last two quarters. Gross margin improved, but operating income remains under pressure from higher costs, and erratic earnings results make the next report a risk.

What Amphstar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on continued product launches and pipeline progress translating into revenue growth, while operating costs stop limiting income improvement. Near term, a guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would be negative; continued strength from healthcare peers would support the sector backdrop.