Reading AKBA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AKBA free→Reading AKBA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AKBA free→NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 75% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $0.98. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $0.94 AKBA trades at 1× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $3.55 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 74% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted -2.95x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.01 → $-0.03 (-400.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$243.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$606.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,823.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AKBA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026 and recent business highlights. A copy of the Company’s press release containing this information is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K (“Report”) and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Report (including
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Pharmaceuticals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AKBA Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | expensive | low |
MRK Merck & Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PFE Pfizer | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | full | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on significant Vafseo revenue growth by expanding access at dialysis organizations and improving adherence.
Anticipate and manage the decline in Auryxia revenues due to increased generic competition.
Aim to achieve profitability by advancing existing programs under the current operating plan.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025 and recent business highlights related to the commercial launch of Vafseo® (vadadustat) as well as its pipeline. A copy of the Company’s press release containing this information is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K (“Report”) and is incorpor…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On January 27, 2026, Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a lease agreement (the “Lease”) with BP THIRD AVENUE LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (the “Landlord”), pursuant to which the Company will lease an aggregate of approximately 43,474 square feet, consisting of 28,518 square feet of office space (the “Office Premises”) and 14,956 square feet of laboratory space (the “Lab Premises”) located at the building commonly kno…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. CEO Executive Severance Agreement On January 28, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), the Company entered into an amended and restated executive severance agreement (the “Amended CEO Executive Severance Agreement”) with the Company’s President and Chief Executive Officer, John P. Butler. The Amended CEO Executive Severance Agreement was approved by the Boa…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 12, 2026, Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing key corporate updates associated with its Vafseo® (vadadustat) commercial business and providing an outlook on upcoming milestones, including for its next anticipated growth driver, the Company’s mid-stage rare kidney disease pipeline. The Company also provided an overview of expected fourth quarter 2025 Vafseo net product revenue. A copy of the Compa…