Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (AKBA)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$0.57+0.84%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Akebia Therapeutics, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	48.17M
EPS	—	-0.04
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	197.85M
EPS	—	-0.14
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	132.51M
EPS	—	-0.305

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Manage Auryxia revenue decline due to competition	The company manages Auryxia's revenue decline due to competition.	Broken	Auryxia revenue declines faster than expected or accelerates loss	Auryxia unavailable in the latest segment data Last available Auryxia revenue: $36.19M in FY2026-Q1. Latest source period is FY2026-Q2; a broader segment cannot substitute for this measure. Source published May 7, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source Auryxia · reported segment FY2026-Q1 · Period ending Mar 31, 2026 Source: stock_segment_revenue. Reference: 2026-Q1. Source status: vendor observation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Advance rare kidney disease pipeline through acquisitions and development	Recent M&A activity strengthens its rare kidney disease pipeline.	Improving	pipeline milestones delayed or acquisitions fail to integrate	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Stabilize and grow total revenue	A primary condition in Akebia Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is total revenue >= $58.8 million in FY25.	Broken	total revenue falls below $58 million in FY25	Revenue: $49.128M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: total revenue >= $58.8 million in FY25. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202649,128,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 97cb2144-422c-4148-950e-e26c176174bd. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Expand Vafseo revenue through dialysis access	Akebia is growing Vafseo revenue by expanding dialysis access.	Improving	Vafseo revenue growth fails to materialize or declines over next 4 quarters	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.16B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$159,899,200	2 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$159,899,200	2 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$159,899,200	2 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$159,899,200	2 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$159,899,200	2 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$159,899,200	2 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$159,899,200	2 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$159,899,200	2 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$159,899,200	2 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$159,899,200	2 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$159,899,200	2 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$159,899,200	2 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$159,899,200	2 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$159,899,200	2 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$159,369,200	1 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$159,369,200	1 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$159,369,200	1 / 5
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$148,189,200	1 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$148,189,200	1 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$148,189,200	1 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	5	0
2026-06-01	5	0
2026-07-01	5	0
2026-08-01	5	1
2026-09-01	5	1
2026-10-01	5	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Manage Auryxia revenue decline due to competitionPublished status: Broken
Advance rare kidney disease pipeline through acquisitions and developmentDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Stabilize and grow total revenuePublished status: Broken
Expand Vafseo revenue through dialysis accessDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 9, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-82.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk, loss-making commercial growth story, not a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, with Vafseo expansion and pipeline progress supporting it, while the business still faces pressure from Auryxia and recent risk has risen.

What's priced into Akebia Therapeutics, Inc.

The evidence describes AKBA as cheap versus peers, while also indicating that expectations are below the model’s implied case. Confidence in that valuation read is low, and the evidence does not establish how much of the operating risk is reflected in the market’s view.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, Vafseo’s net product revenue rose from $15.8 million in Q1 2026 to $21.3 million in Q2, with more than 10,500 patients on therapy. Auryxia revenue fell to $25.5 million in Q2 from $47.2 million a year earlier, and total company revenue also declined year over year; the company remains loss-making. Pipeline trials advanced, but an elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss and a recent delisting-rule notice add uncertainty.

What Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view depends on whether Vafseo can keep expanding access and patient use while the company advances its kidney-disease trials. Near-term risk rises if management cuts guidance, while stronger results and guidance from healthcare peers could support sector momentum; weakening job growth could weigh on the sector. The supplied evidence does not explain the delisting notice or the president transition, so their business impact remains unclear.