Reading ADNT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ADNT free→Reading ADNT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ADNT free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate. However, the sector backdrop is a headwind, and ADNT trades above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 47% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $21.58. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $23 ADNT trades at 12× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $41 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $28–$33. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 44% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 9.25x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.61 → $0.54 (-11.5% / 30d). 4 raised, 7 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 54% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 200.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$181.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$466.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,119.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation rose by 13.5 points (from 77.9 to 91.4).
As of June 16, 2026, valuation rose. The sector backdrop fell. Risk remained moderate. Earnings quality is robust, and management is stable.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A higher gross profit margin shows better cost control and stronger pricing.
Confirms:Gross profit margin is expected to be over 6% in the next quarters.
Disproves:Gross profit margin is expected to be under 5% in the next quarters.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ADNT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026 , Adient plc (the “Company”) issued a news release announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended March 31, 2026. The news release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporate…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$28.00 – $33.00 (median $30.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-11
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Parts & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ADNT Adient | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
MOD Modine Manufacturing Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
BWA BorgWarner | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | full | moderate |
APTV Aptiv | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AUR Aurora Innovation Inc | — | — | elevated |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on growing revenue through strategic business wins and market expansion.
Improve gross profit through operational efficiencies and strategic initiatives.
Focus on increasing operating income through cost control and revenue growth.
Why it matters: Lower restructuring costs mean the company is managed well. It also shows better operations.
Confirms:Restructuring costs reported below $10M in the next quarter.
Disproves:Restructuring costs reported above $15M in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Strong sales in China are crucial for Adient's overall growth strategy.
Confirms:Sales growth in China reported above 15% year over year.
Disproves:Sales growth in China reported below 10% year over year.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 10, 2026, the Human Capital and Compensation Committee of Adient’s Board of Directors approved a one-time restricted stock unit retention award for James Conklin, Adient’s Executive Vice President, Americas (the “Special RSU Award”), pursuant to Adient’s 2021 Omnibus Incentive Plan, based on the centrality of his role in fiscal year 2026 a…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 4, 2026, Adient plc (the “Company”) issued a news release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended December 31, 2025. The news release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incor…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On October 17, 2025 (the “Amendment Effective Date”), Adient US LLC, a Michigan limited liability company (the “Lead Borrower”), Adient plc (the “Company”), and the other Loan Parties (as defined in the Amended Credit Agreement (as defined below)) entered into an amendment (the “Amendment”) to the Amended and Restated Revolving Credit Agreement, dated as of November 2, 2022 (as amended prior to the date hereof, the “Existing Credit Agreement” and, a…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant The information set forth under