Reading ACIC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ACIC free→Reading ACIC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ACIC free→NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, ACIC trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 38% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $10.56. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $11 ACIC trades at 5× p/e, below its 11× p/e peer median. Our $16 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 37% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.37x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.46 → $0.41 (-9.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$108.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$298.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,927.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could affect investor confidence in American Coastal Insurance.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth falls below 15% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth stays at or above 15% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ACIC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2 attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference to such filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Property & Casualty Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ACIC American Coastal Insurance Corp. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CB Chubb Limited | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | full | moderate |
PGR Progressive Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRV Travelers Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | low |
ALL Allstate | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve total revenue guidance of $335M to $365M for fiscal year 2026.
Management aims to achieve an EPS of $2.15 for fiscal year 2026.
Management aims to achieve Earnings Before Income Tax (EBIT) guidance of $85M to $100M for fiscal year 2026.
and 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2 attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference to such filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 17, 2026, Sherrill W. Hudson notified American Coastal Insurance Corporation (the "Company") that he will not seek re-election of his position as a member of the Board of Directors (the "Board") of the Company. Mr. Hudson will continue to serve on the Board and Committees through the remainder of his term which will expire as of the dat…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On December 1, 2025, the Company issued a press release announcing that its Board of Directors has declared a special cash dividend of $0.75 per share of common stock. The dividend is payable to the Company's shareholders of record as of January 2, 2026, and will be paid on January 9, 2026. A copy of this press release is attached to this report as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished under this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deeme…
and 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2 attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference to such filing.