Reading ZWS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEIndustrialsPollution & Treatment ControlsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, indicating challenges in the current environment. Peer multiples imply a price about 13% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. Key factors to watch include guidance changes from ZWS and the performance of sector bellwethers like VLTO, CECO, and PCT. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $48.82. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $48 ZWS trades at 30× p/e, in line with its 24× p/e peer median. Our $44 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $53–$58. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 11% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.64x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.47 → $0.47 (+0.0% / 30d). 10 raised, 0 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 40% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$77.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$241.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,702.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This guidance shows the company's growth momentum and market demand. Strong growth supports the positive outlook.
Confirms:Q2 core sales growth guidance confirmed at 8% to 9% compared to last year's second quarter.
Disproves:Guidance for Q2 core sales growth falls below 7%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ZWS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangement of Certain Officers. On May 27, 2026, the Company announced that David J. Pauli, who currently serves as Chief Financial Officer (CFO), was promoted to the position of Chief Operating Officer (COO), effective immediately. In this role, Mr. Pauli will continue to report to Todd Adams, the Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer of the Company, and will be responsi…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$53.00 – $58.00 (median $54.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-04-23
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ZWS Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | full | moderate |
PH Parker Hannifin | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
ITW Illinois Tool Works | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GWW W. W. Grainger | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
DOV Dover Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | low |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving mid-single digit core sales growth for 2026.
Continue to improve operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Maintain a steady increase in dividend per share to enhance shareholder value.
Why it matters: The earnings call will provide insights into performance and future guidance. Key for assessing growth strategies.
Confirms one read:The earnings call had better results than expected. The outlook is positive.
Confirms the other:The earnings call had disappointing results. Guidance has been lowered.
Why it matters: The earnings results will show if revenue growth is on track. This is key for investors.
Confirms:Earnings results show revenue growth higher than 6% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth reported below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can affect company strategy and performance. This could impact revenue growth.
Confirms one read:New CFO announces a strategic plan that boosts revenue growth expectations.
Confirms the other:A change in CFO brings uncertainty and no clear plan for the future.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect company plans and actions. Good performance shows the company is stable.
Confirms one read:The company had good results and new plans after the CFO change.
Confirms the other:There were problems or missed goals after the CFO change.
Why it matters: This margin range shows how well the company runs its operations. Higher margins mean better cost control.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA margins were 27.0% to 27.5% for Q2.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA margins fall below 26.0% for Q2.
Why it matters: An increase in dividends would show strong cash flow and commitment to shareholders. This is a positive sign.
Confirms:News of a dividend increase that is higher than the current amount.
Disproves:No news of a dividend increase in the next quarterly update.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income is key for making more money. It shows good cost control.
Confirms:Operating income is expected to rise by more than 10% in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Operating income is expected to rise by less than 5% in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: The CFO change may impact money plans and business choices. This matters for future growth.
Confirms one read:Good changes or cost cuts announced after the CFO change.
Confirms the other:Bad changes or higher costs reported after the CFO change.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 27, 2026, Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation (the “Company” or “Zurn Elkay”) issued a press release that included a preview of its expected results for the second quarter and announcing that the Company will provide further details on the second quarter and second half outlook during an earnings call that will occur in late July. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Item, including…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation (the "Company") is filing this Current Report on Form 8-K to furnish its earnings release dated April 21, 2026, regarding its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, which is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Item, including Exhibit 99.1, is “furnished” and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or otherwis…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 30, 2026, Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation (the “Company”) announced that Sudhanshu Chhabra, Executive Vice President, Zurn Elkay Business Systems, will transition into an advisory role effective April 30, 2026.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 19, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation's (the “Company”) subsidiaries ZBS Global, Inc., Zurn Holdings, Inc., Zurn LLC, and EMC Water LLC, as Borrowers (collectively, the “Borrowers”), the other loan parties thereto, the lenders from time to time party thereto, and UBS AG, Stamford Branch, as former administrative agent and former collateral agent, and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as successor administrative…