Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corp. (ZWS)

NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-23

$48.55-0.23%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.03 → 2.03 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	436.91M
EPS	—	0.428
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	About $16M	1.85B
EPS	—	1.833
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.97B
EPS	—	2.031

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
steady dividend per share increase	A supporting condition in Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is dividend per share increases by at least 10% annually.	Intact	dividend per share growth stalls or declines in FY26	Dividend per share: $0.11 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: dividend per share increases by at least 10% annually. Target and observation units differ. Source published Apr 21, 20260.11 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Mar 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c9f0f4fa-4cda-4c50-b81a-ba261c6ca9e1. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Dividend per share increased from $0.08 in 2025-Q1 to $0.11 in 2026-Q4, with $37 million paid in dividends in first half 2026. This reflects management's consistent commitment to returning capital to shareholders and disciplined capital allocation. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
free cash flow at least $335 million	Free cash flow is strong at $335 million.	Intact	free cash flow falls below $300 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $156M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=335 million USD FCF. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 2026156,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
gross margin near 27-27.5%	A primary condition in Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=27% gross margin.	Intact	gross margin falls below 26% next quarter	Gross margin: 47.53% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=27% gross margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Apr 21, 202647.528868 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Mar 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c9f0f4fa-4cda-4c50-b81a-ba261c6ca9e1. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
mid-single digit core sales growth	A primary condition in Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=8% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 5% in FY26	Revenue growth: 11.37% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=8% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Apr 21, 202611.368313 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Mar 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c9f0f4fa-4cda-4c50-b81a-ba261c6ca9e1. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Core sales grew 11% in 2026-Q1 and 10% in 2026-Q2 year over year. Management expects mid-single digit core sales growth for full year 2026, consistent with the trajectory of above-market growth and new product launches. The company is delivering on revenue growth commitments. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.03

$1.93 → $2.03 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.97B

$1.92B → $1.97B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.93	$1,923,837,250	11 / 10
2026-07-25	$1.93	$1,923,837,250	11 / 10
2026-07-26	$1.93	$1,923,837,250	11 / 10
2026-07-27	$1.93	$1,923,906,980	6 / 8
2026-07-28	$1.93	$1,923,906,980	6 / 8
2026-07-29	$1.93	$1,923,837,250	11 / 10
2026-07-30	$1.94	$1,930,129,890	6 / 8
2026-07-31	$2.03	$1,970,735,600	6 / 8
2026-08-01	$2.03	$1,970,735,600	6 / 8
2026-08-02	$2.03	$1,970,735,600	6 / 8
2026-08-03	$2.04	$1,970,738,790	10 / 10
2026-08-04	$2.03	$1,970,735,600	6 / 8
2026-08-05	$2.04	$1,970,738,790	10 / 10
2026-08-06	$2.03	$1,970,735,600	6 / 8
2026-08-08	$2.03	$1,970,735,600	6 / 8
2026-08-09	$2.04	$1,970,738,790	10 / 10
2026-08-10	$2.03	$1,970,735,600	6 / 8
2026-08-12	$2.04	$1,970,738,790	10 / 10
2026-08-13	$2.03	$1,970,735,600	6 / 8
2026-08-14	$2.03	$1,970,735,600	6 / 8
2026-08-15	$2.03	$1,970,735,600	6 / 8
2026-08-16	$2.03	$1,970,735,600	6 / 8
2026-08-17	$2.03	$1,970,735,600	6 / 8
2026-08-18	$2.03	$1,970,735,600	6 / 8
2026-08-19	$2.03	$1,970,735,600	6 / 8
2026-08-20	$2.03	$1,970,695,600	6 / 8
2026-08-21	$2.03	$1,970,695,600	6 / 8
2026-08-22	$2.03	$1,970,692,428	6 / 8
2026-08-23	$2.02	$1,967,991,587	6 / 8
2026-08-24	$2.02	$1,967,991,587	5 / 7
2026-08-25	$2.02	$1,967,991,587	5 / 7
2026-08-26	$2.02	$1,967,991,587	5 / 7
2026-08-27	$2.02	$1,967,991,587	5 / 7
2026-08-28	$2.02	$1,967,991,587	5 / 7
2026-08-29	$2.02	$1,967,991,587	5 / 7
2026-08-30	$2.02	$1,967,991,587	5 / 7
2026-08-31	$2.02	$1,967,991,587	5 / 7
2026-09-01	$2.02	$1,967,991,587	5 / 7
2026-09-02	$2.02	$1,967,991,587	5 / 7
2026-09-03	$2.02	$1,967,991,587	5 / 7
2026-09-04	$2.02	$1,967,991,587	5 / 7
2026-09-05	$2.02	$1,967,991,587	5 / 7
2026-09-06	$2.02	$1,967,991,587	5 / 7
2026-09-07	$2.02	$1,967,991,587	5 / 7
2026-09-08	$2.02	$1,967,991,587	5 / 7
2026-09-09	$2.03	$1,969,458,253	5 / 7
2026-09-10	$2.03	$1,969,458,253	5 / 7
2026-09-11	$2.03	$1,969,458,253	5 / 7
2026-09-12	$2.03	$1,969,458,253	5 / 7
2026-09-13	$2.03	$1,969,458,253	5 / 7
2026-09-14	$2.03	$1,969,458,253	5 / 7
2026-09-15	$2.03	$1,969,458,253	5 / 7
2026-09-16	$2.03	$1,969,458,253	5 / 7
2026-09-17	$2.03	$1,969,458,253	5 / 7
2026-09-18	$2.03	$1,969,458,253	5 / 7
2026-09-19	$2.03	$1,969,458,253	5 / 7
2026-09-20	$2.03	$1,969,458,253	5 / 7
2026-09-21	$2.03	$1,969,458,253	5 / 7
2026-09-22	$2.03	$1,969,458,253	5 / 7
2026-09-23	$2.03	$1,969,458,253	5 / 7
2026-09-24	$2.03	$1,969,458,253	5 / 7
2026-09-25	$2.03	$1,969,458,253	5 / 7
2026-09-26	$2.03	$1,969,458,253	5 / 7
2026-09-27	$2.03	$1,969,458,253	5 / 7
2026-09-28	$2.03	$1,969,458,253	5 / 7
2026-09-29	$2.03	$1,969,458,253	5 / 7
2026-09-30	$2.03	$1,969,458,253	5 / 7
2026-10-01	$2.03	$1,969,458,253	5 / 7
2026-10-02	$2.03	$1,969,458,253	5 / 7
2026-10-03	$2.03	$1,969,458,253	5 / 7
2026-10-04	$2.03	$1,969,458,253	5 / 7
2026-10-05	$2.03	$1,969,458,253	5 / 7
2026-10-06	$2.03	$1,969,458,253	5 / 7
2026-10-07	$2.03	$1,969,458,253	5 / 7
2026-10-08	$2.03	$1,969,508,987	5 / 7
2026-10-09	$2.03	$1,969,508,987	5 / 7
2026-10-10	$2.03	$1,969,508,987	5 / 7
2026-10-11	$2.03	$1,969,508,987	5 / 7
2026-10-12	$2.03	$1,969,508,987	5 / 7
2026-10-13	$2.03	$1,969,508,987	5 / 7
2026-10-14	$2.03	$1,969,508,987	5 / 7
2026-10-15	$2.03	$1,969,508,987	5 / 7
2026-10-16	$2.03	$1,969,508,987	5 / 7
2026-10-17	$2.03	$1,969,508,987	5 / 7
2026-10-18	$2.03	$1,969,508,987	5 / 6
2026-10-19	$2.03	$1,969,508,987	5 / 6
2026-10-20	$2.03	$1,969,120,098	5 / 6
2026-10-21	$2.03	$1,969,075,653	5 / 6
2026-10-22	$2.03	$1,969,053,431	5 / 6
2026-10-23	$2.03	$1,969,053,431	5 / 6
2026-10-24	$2.03	$1,969,053,431	5 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	6
2026-06-01	5	6
2026-07-01	6	6
2026-08-01	5	6
2026-09-01	4	6
2026-10-01	4	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

steady dividend per share increaseDividend per share: $0.11 per share
free cash flow at least $335 millionFree cash flow: $156M
gross margin near 27-27.5%Gross margin: 47.53%
mid-single digit core sales growthRevenue growth: 11.37%

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-17.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a stable growth opportunity with a focus on revenue and margin expansion. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent strong financial results, but confidence has shifted to medium due to potential sector challenges.

What's priced into Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corp.

The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility, reflecting a justified valuation. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that investors may anticipate continued stable performance without significant surprises.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with priorities to increase revenue growth, enhance operating income, and increase dividends. Recent financial performance has been strong, with core sales growth and improved margins, although there is a moderate risk of missing future guidance.

What Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corp. hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like GEV, PH, and TT. If these companies continue to perform well, ZWS may benefit from sector momentum. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could impact ZWS negatively.