Reading XERS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track XERS free→Reading XERS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track XERS free→NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly, and risk is high. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, XERS is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 150% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $6.88. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $6.79 XERS trades at 4× p/s — 1.7× the 2× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $2.38 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 186% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 4.04x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated robust grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.01 → $0.00 (-69.4% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$190.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$431.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,657.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping positive net income is key for financial health. It shows the company can manage costs.
Confirms:Q2 earnings report shows positive net income.
Disproves:Q2 earnings report shows a net loss.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for XERS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On June 11, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing entry into the Exchange Agreements. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. Special Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements in this Current Report on Form 8-K relating to, among other things, the Exchange Agreements and the transactions contemplated thereby constitute forward-looking statements under The Private Securities Litigatio…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Pharmaceuticals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
XERS Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | expensive | high |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | expensive | low |
MRK Merck & Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PFE Pfizer | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | fair | low |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management has raised the bottom end of the full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $380 million to $390 million.
Entered into exchange agreements to manage capital allocation by exchanging $23 million of 2028 Notes.
Focus on maintaining positive net income as demonstrated by recent financial performance.
Why it matters: Raising revenue guidance shows stronger growth expectations for the company. This can boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Management raised its revenue guidance for 2026. This is higher than current estimates.
Disproves:Management keeps or lowers revenue guidance for 2026.
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. On June 10, 2026, Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into privately negotiated exchange agreements (the “Exchange Agreements”) with certain holders (the “Noteholders”) of its 8.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2028 (the “2028 Notes”), pursuant to which the Noteholders have agreed to exchange (the “Exchange”) approximately $23 million in aggregate principal amount of the outstanding 2028 Notes for a combination of cash and shares of…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release containing information about the Company’s results of operations and business highlights for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Sectio…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Retirement of Director Jeffrey Sherman On April 20, 2026, Dr. Jeffrey Sherman, a member of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”), provided notice to the Company of his decision to retire from the Board and not stand for reelection at the Company’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “2026 Annual…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 2, 2026, Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release containing information about the Company’s results of operations and business highlights for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2025. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for pu…