Reading VTS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VTS free→Reading VTS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VTS free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, VTS trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 35% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $16.05. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $16 VTS trades at 3× p/s — 1.4× the 2× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $22 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 25% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
Over the trailing year it converted -8.99x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=329).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.04 → $0.00 (-100.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$160.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$328.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,564.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation changed. It rose to inexpensive from fair. Risk remained moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Better revenue growth means the company is doing well. It also helps the sector.
Confirms:Revenue growth turns positive, exceeding 2% year over year in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 2% year over year in the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VTS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, (the “Securities Act”) or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Exploration & Production.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VTS Vitesse Energy, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 18 of 100 | fair | moderate |
COP ConocoPhillips | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
EOG EOG Resources | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | full | moderate |
OXY Occidental Petroleum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FANG Diamondback Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Vitesse aims to keep its capital expenditures between $50 and $80 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Vitesse has maintained its guidance for capital expenditures between $50 and $80 million for 2026. However, the financials do not provide specific CAPEX figures for 2026-Q1, making it difficult to assess progress. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
“Vitesse expects total cash capital spending in the range of $50 - $80 million for 2026.”
“It is increasing and tightening the range of its capital expenditure guidance.”
Vitesse targets an annual production range of 16,000 to 17,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day for 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Vitesse has set a production target of 16,000 to 17,500 Boe per day for 2026. The financials do not provide specific production figures for 2026-Q1, making it challenging to evaluate progress. Recurring focus, narrow delivery so far.
“Vitesse expects production on a two-stream basis to be in the range of 16,000 - 17,500 Boe per day for the full year of 2026.”
Vitesse completed an acquisition and aims to integrate the acquired non-operated oil and gas assets.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Vitesse completed an acquisition of non-operated oil and gas assets, issuing 1,935,698 shares of common stock. The integration of these assets is expected to contribute to growth, but financials do not yet reflect the impact. Newly stated, awaiting delivery.
“The Company entered into a registration rights agreement with the Seller in connection with the closing of the Acquisition.”
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Resignation of Robert W. Gerrity as Chief Executive Officer and Chairman On March 26, 2026, Robert W. Gerrity, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Vitesse Energy, Inc. (the “Company”), notified the Board of Directors of the Company (the “Board”) of his decision to resign as Chief Executive Officer of the Company and as Chairman and a member of t…
Other Events On April 8, 2026, the Company entered into a registration rights agreement with the Seller, whereby the Company, among other things, agreed to file with the Securities and Exchange Commission a shelf registration statement registering for resale the shares of common stock issued to the Seller as consideration in connection with the closing of the Acquisition and to use its commercially reasonable efforts to maintain an effective resale shelf registration statement and granted pig…
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities On April 8, 2026, Vitesse Energy, Inc. (the “Company”) issued 1,935,698 shares of common stock, par value $0.01 per share, of the Company (the “common stock”), to a third party seller (“Seller”) in exchange for certain non-operated oil and gas assets (the “Acquisition”). The issuance of the common stock was made in reliance on the exemption from registration requirements under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), pursuant to Se…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, (the “Securities Act”) or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a…
“The Company is increasing its annual production guidance for 2025 by 8% at the midpoint.”