Reading TVRD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TVRD free→Reading TVRD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TVRD free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been fairly steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with TVRD trading below typical compared to sector peers. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.67. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Not enough valuation methods to set a 12-month read yet.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.40x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.63 → $-0.63 (+0.3% / 30d). 3 raised, 1 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 56% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 211.4% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$262.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$702.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $9,386.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If healthcare sector revenue growth speeds up, it may help Tvardi's performance. This could indicate a better environment for growth.
Confirms:Healthcare sector revenue growth rises back toward 10% year over year.
Disproves:Healthcare sector revenue growth continues to slow below 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TVRD yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission made by us, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general incorporation languag…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TVRD Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 12 of 100 | — | high |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Tvardi aims to sustain its cash runway to fund operations through clinical readouts and into the fourth quarter of 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Tvardi's financials show a net income loss of $6.8M in 2026-Q1 and $7.3M in 2025-Q4, indicating ongoing cash burn. Despite this, management maintains confidence in the cash runway through Q4 2026, but the trajectory shows persistent losses.
“Tvardi anticipates that its current cash runway is sufficient to fund operations through clinical readouts and into Q4 2026.”
“Tvardi anticipates that its current cash runway is sufficient to fund operations through clinical readouts and into Q4 2026.”
Tvardi expects topline results from the ongoing Phase 2 REVERTLIVER CANCER trial in the first half of 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Tvardi has not provided specific financial outcomes related to the trial, but the expectation of results in 1H 2026 is a key milestone. The financials show no revenue, indicating reliance on successful trial outcomes for future growth.
“Topline results from ongoing Phase 2 REVERTLIVER CANCER trial expected in 1H:2026.”
Results of Operations and Financial Condition” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission made by us, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general incorporation languag…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers, Election of Directors, Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Retention Compensation On December 16, 2025, the Board of Directors of Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) approved one-time retention compensation for certain of the Company’s employees, as recommended by the Compensation Committee of the Board, including to each of the Company’s named executive officers, as follows: Name and Title Option to…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission made by us, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general incorporation languag…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission made by us, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general incorporation languag…