Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc. (TVRD)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$0.94-3.31%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	0
EPS	—	-0.399
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	0
EPS	—	-2.188
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	0
EPS	—	-2.03

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain cash runway through Q4 2026	The company aims to maintain cash through Q4 2026 to fund trials.	Intact	Cash runway falls short of funding operations through Q4 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improve earnings trajectory	A supporting condition in Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss narrows or stabilizes relative to consensus by FY27.	Broken	EPS loss worsens beyond consensus estimates through FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Phase 2 REVERTLIVER cancer trial results in 1H 2026	Phase 2 trial results expected in first half of 2026 could validate the drug.	Intact	Phase 2 trial results delayed beyond 1H 2026 or negative outcomes reported	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-2.03

$-2.54 → $-2.03 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-2.54	Unavailable	5 / 0
2026-07-25	$-2.54	Unavailable	5 / 0
2026-07-26	$-2.54	Unavailable	5 / 0
2026-07-27	$-2.54	Unavailable	5 / 0
2026-07-28	$-2.54	Unavailable	5 / 0
2026-07-29	$-2.54	Unavailable	5 / 0
2026-07-30	$-2.73	$0	7 / 8
2026-07-31	$-2.54	Unavailable	5 / 0
2026-08-01	$-2.54	Unavailable	5 / 0
2026-08-02	$-2.73	$0	7 / 8
2026-08-03	$-2.73	$0	7 / 8
2026-08-04	$-2.54	Unavailable	5 / 0
2026-08-05	$-2.73	$0	7 / 8
2026-08-06	$-2.73	$0	7 / 8
2026-08-08	$-2.54	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-08-09	$-2.73	$0	7 / 8
2026-08-10	$-2.73	$0	7 / 8
2026-08-12	$-2.54	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-08-13	$-2.54	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-08-14	$-2.54	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-08-15	$-2.54	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-08-16	$-2.54	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-08-17	$-2.54	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-08-18	$-2.54	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-08-19	$-2.54	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-08-20	$-2.09	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-08-21	$-2.09	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-08-22	$-2.09	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-08-23	$-2.09	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-08-24	$-2.09	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-08-25	$-2.09	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-08-26	$-2.09	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-08-27	$-2.09	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-08-28	$-2.09	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-08-29	$-2.15	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-08-30	$-2.15	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-08-31	$-2.15	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-09-01	$-2.15	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-09-02	$-2.15	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-09-03	$-2.15	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-09-04	$-2.15	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-09-05	$-2.15	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-09-06	$-2.15	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-09-07	$-2.15	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-09-08	$-2.15	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-09-09	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-09-10	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-09-11	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-09-12	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-09-13	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-09-14	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-09-15	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-09-16	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-09-17	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-09-18	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-09-19	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-09-20	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-09-21	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-09-22	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-09-23	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-09-24	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-09-25	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-09-26	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-09-27	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-09-28	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-09-29	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-09-30	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-10-01	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-10-02	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-10-03	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-10-04	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-10-05	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-10-06	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-10-07	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-10-08	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-10-09	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-10-10	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-10-11	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-10-12	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-10-13	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-10-14	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-10-15	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-10-16	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-10-17	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-10-18	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-10-19	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-10-20	$-2.06	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-10-21	$-2.03	Unavailable	6 / 0
2026-10-22	$-2.03	Unavailable	7 / 0
2026-10-23	$-2.03	Unavailable	7 / 0
2026-10-24	$-2.03	Unavailable	7 / 0

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	3	1
2026-06-01	5	3	1
2026-07-01	7	3	1
2026-08-01	7	1	1
2026-09-01	7	1	1
2026-10-01	8	1	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain cash runway through Q4 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Improve earnings trajectoryPublished status: Broken
Phase 2 REVERTLIVER cancer trial results in 1H 2026Qualitative condition

Next proof point

Nov 12, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-81.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative clinical-stage healthcare business, not a proven earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: key trial plans are progressing, while recent performance and earnings quality remain weak.

What's priced into Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc.

The evidence describes TVRD as cheap versus peers, with a low-confidence valuation model and a justified priced-in assessment. That suggests some weakness is recognized, but the evidence does not show that clinical or funding risks are fully reflected in expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, consecutive earnings misses and elevated risk of another miss leave execution uncertain. Over the multi-year view, TTI-101 topline data are planned for the second half of 2026, while TTI-109 development is progressing; cash fell from $30.8 million at 2025-Q4 to $15.8 million at 2026-Q2 as the company continued to incur operating losses.

What Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc. hinges on

A key swing factor is whether TTI-101 reports topline results on the planned timeline and whether those results support further development. TTI-109’s planned ulcerative colitis trial depends on regulatory clearance and additional funding, while cash runway and any guidance cut also matter. A weakening jobs trend could weigh on cyclical healthcare names, while strength from sector peers could support the sector backdrop.