Reading TLPH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TLPH free→Reading TLPH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TLPH free→NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but it has a capital-unfriendly stance. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with TLPH trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 494% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $0.92. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $0.92, TLPH's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 896× p/s (382.5× the 2× p/s peer median). That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $0.15 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 494% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.79x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.08 → $-0.07 (+18.8% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$277.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$831.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,053.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TLPH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and in Exhibit 99.1 shall be deemed to be “ furnished ” and shall not be deemed to be “ filed ” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ” ), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “ Securities Act ” ). The information contained in this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2022-Q3, 2023-Q2, 2023-Q3, 2025-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TLPH TALPHERA INC | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 10 of 100 | expensive | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to keep operating expenses, excluding stock-based compensation, between $17 million and $18 million for 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management aims to control operating expenses within $17M-$18M in 2026. Previous guidance for 2025 was $14M-$15M, indicating an increase. The trajectory shows persistent focus on cost control, but financials reveal ongoing net losses, with net income at -$2.56M in 2026-Q1.
“Cash operating expenses are expected to be in the range of $17 million to $18 million in 2026.”
“Cash operating expenses expected to be $14 million to $15 million in 2025.”
Management is focused on resolving the Nasdaq listing compliance issues to maintain its listing status.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management received a notice from Nasdaq for non-compliance with the minimum bid price requirement. This regulatory issue poses a risk to the company's listing status, and addressing it is crucial for maintaining market presence.
“Received a notice from Nasdaq for non-compliance with the minimum bid price requirement.”
Continue advancing the NEPHRO CRRT registration trial as part of the company's strategic initiatives.
Stated in 1 of last 2 quarters. Management included expenses for advancing the NEPHRO CRRT registration trial in 2025 guidance. However, with ongoing net losses and zero revenue in recent quarters, the financial capacity to support this initiative remains constrained.
“Expenses related to advancing the NEPHRO CRRT registration trial included in 2025 guidance.”
and in Exhibit 99.1 shall be deemed to be “ furnished ” and shall not be deemed to be “ filed ” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ” ), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “ Securities Act ” ). The information contained in this
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. On March 11, 2026, Talphera, Inc., (the “Company”) received a written notice (the “Notice”) from the Listing Qualifications Staff of the Nasdaq Stock Market (“Nasdaq”) notifying the Company that it is not in compliance with the minimum bid price requirement set forth in Nasdaq Listing Rule 5550(a)(2) for continued listing on The Nasdaq Capital Market. Nasdaq Listing Rule 5550(a)(2) requires li…
Sale of Unregistered Securities Securities Purchase Agreement As previously disclosed, on March 31, 2025, Talphera, Inc., or the Company, entered into a securities purchase agreement, or the Purchase Agreement, with several institutional investors and a member of management (collectively, the Purchasers), relating to the issuance and sale in a private placement in three separate tranches of (i) shares of its common stock, par value $0.001 per share and (ii) pre-funded warrants to purchase sha…
and in Exhibit 99.1 shall be deemed to be “ furnished ” and shall not be deemed to be “ filed ” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ” ), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “ Securities Act ” ). The information contained in this