Reading TKR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TKR free→Reading TKR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TKR free→NYSEIndustrialsTools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. The sector backdrop is a headwind, although TKR trades above typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers, as these could significantly impact TKR's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $140.30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $139 TKR trades at 25× p/e, in line with its 24× p/e peer median. Our $144 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $117–$158. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 3% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.74x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.58 → $1.62 (+2.0% / 30d). 4 raised, 0 cut, 12 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 13.1% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$147.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$284.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,340.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If EPS meets or exceeds this level, it shows management believes in growth and profits.
Confirms:Adjusted EPS for Q2 reported at or above $1.67.
Disproves:Adjusted EPS for Q2 reported below $1.50.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TKR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The Timken Company (the “Company”) issued a press release on May 6, 2026 announcing results for the first quarter of 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference. Also on May 6, 2026, the Company will host a conference call and post conference call materials to its website, www.timken.com. This information shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$117.00 – $158.00 (median $134.50) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-06-05
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TKR Timken | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PH Parker Hannifin | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
ITW Illinois Tool Works | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GWW W. W. Grainger | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
DOV Dover Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | low |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through improved customer demand and market expansion.
Continue efforts to enhance operating income through operational efficiencies and cost management.
Focus on increasing net income through strategic initiatives and operational improvements.
Why it matters: If growth exceeds 5%, it shows Timken's demand is strong and prices are working.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping a net income margin above 8% shows good cost control and pricing strength.
Confirms:Net income margin reported above 8% for Q2.
Disproves:Net income margin reported below 7% for Q2.
Why it matters: Trends in the sector can affect Timken's growth and profits.
Confirms:Sector growth is speeding up above 6% each year.
Disproves:Sector growth is slowing down below 6% each year.
Why it matters: Net income over $100M shows that Timken's plans are working. It means they are managing costs well.
Confirms:Net income for Q2 exceeds $100M.
Disproves:Net income for Q2 is below $90M.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows Timken is keeping costs low.
Confirms:Operating income is up more than 5% from Q1.
Disproves:Operating income decreases or grows less than 5% compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Updates on this deal will show how Timken adds new assets and grows its market.
Confirms one read:Good news on how well Bijur Delimon is integrated and its revenue.
Confirms the other:Bad news about problems with integration or low revenue from Bijur Delimon.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 8, 2026, The Timken Company (the “Company”) entered into a letter agreement (the “Letter Agreement”) with Hansal N. Patel, the Company’s Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Development. The primary purpose of the Letter Agreement is to provide Mr. Patel with special treatment of certain existing and future short-term and…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 16, 2026, Andreas Roellgen ceased serving as Executive Vice President and President of Engineered Bearings of The Timken Company (the “Company”) effective as of the close of business that day. As an employee who is domiciled in Europe, Mr. Roellgen is subject to local legal requirements and process; an amended or further Current Report on…
Other Events. On February 13, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of The Timken Company (the “Company”) approved a new share purchase plan, effective as of March 1, 2026 (the “2026 Share Purchase Plan”), pursuant to which the Company may purchase up to ten million of its outstanding common shares, without par value (“Common Shares”). Under the 2026 Share Purchase Plan, the Company may, from time-to-time, purchase its Common Shares in open market purchases or privately negotiated transa…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 13, 2026, James F. Palmer and The Timken Company (the “Company”) mutually agreed that he would retire effective as of March 31, 2026 to support the planned transition of the Audit Committee chair role to Sarah C. Lauber. Mr. Palmer currently serves as the Chair of the Audit Committee and a member of the Compensation Committee. Mr. Palme…