Timken (TKR)
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$119.05-3.88%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — EPS meets or exceeds $5.0 in 2026: EPS guidance $3.75-$4.05 vs $5.0 target.
Timken grows revenue by expanding markets and customer demand. Profit rises with better cost control. Net income improved from $62M to $98M in one quarter. The company raised EPS guidance to $5.0 for 2026.
Revenue growth could slow below 4.5%. Cost pressures might reduce profit gains. Net income growth may stall if demand weakens.
The price is about 20% above our fair value near $115. Analysts expect 4.5% revenue growth. We see fair value 14% below the Street median.
Breaks if: EPS guidance falls below $4.7 in FY26
Breaks if: Net income falls below $62M quarterly run-rate
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $109M run-rate
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on accelerating growth and margin expansion. The current thesis state is stable, but there are mixed signals from management and the sector backdrop poses challenges.
The valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, with a slight expectations gap. The market seems to have priced in some fragility due to weak execution quality, but not to an extreme degree.
Fundamentals are expected to remain neutral in the near term, with a low probability of missing earnings. However, recent performance has been trending down, which could impact future results.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SNA, RBC, and LECO. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a tailwind for TKR; conversely, if they start to miss expectations, it could negatively affect TKR.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. Strong operational and financial results reinforce the company's growth and margin expansion goals. There are no new threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 4.5% in FY26
Over the next 1 to 3 years, TKR's performance will depend on both internal management execution and external sector conditions. Not investment advice.