Timken (TKR)

NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$109.33+0.86%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Timken’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.32 → 7.32 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.15B
EPS	—	1.279
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	4.85B
EPS	—	6.278
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	5.01B
EPS	—	7.321

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS meets or exceeds $5.0 in 2026	The company raised EPS guidance to $5.0 for 2026.	Broken	EPS guidance falls below $4.7 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income rises to at least $98M quarterly run-rate	Net income improved from $62M to $98M in one quarter.	Intact	Net income falls below $62M quarterly run-rate	Net income: $28.9M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $98M net income quarterly run-rate. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202628,900,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d38ec075-57ad-4929-9602-87237897288b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves through cost control	Profit rises with better cost control.	Under Pressure	Operating income falls below $109M run-rate	Operating income: $84.8M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $168M operating income in 2026-Q1 equivalent run-rate. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202684,800,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d38ec075-57ad-4929-9602-87237897288b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows at least 4.5% annually	A primary condition in Timken's published investment case. The stated target is >=4.5% YoY.	Under Pressure	YoY revenue growth falls below 4.5% in FY26	Revenue growth: 7.46% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=4.5% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20267.456963 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d38ec075-57ad-4929-9602-87237897288b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$7.32

$7.23 → $7.32 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.01B

$4.99B → $5.01B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.23	$4,992,576,550	12 / 11
2026-07-25	$7.23	$4,992,576,550	12 / 11
2026-07-26	$7.23	$4,992,576,550	12 / 11
2026-07-27	$7.23	$4,992,576,550	12 / 11
2026-07-28	$7.23	$4,992,576,550	12 / 11
2026-07-29	$7.26	$5,002,334,006	9 / 9
2026-07-30	$7.26	$5,002,334,006	9 / 9
2026-07-31	$7.23	$4,992,576,550	12 / 11
2026-08-01	$7.26	$5,002,334,006	9 / 9
2026-08-02	$7.23	$4,992,576,550	12 / 11
2026-08-03	$7.23	$4,992,576,550	12 / 11
2026-08-04	$7.26	$5,002,334,006	9 / 9
2026-08-05	$7.23	$4,992,576,550	12 / 11
2026-08-06	$7.23	$4,992,576,550	12 / 11
2026-08-08	$7.28	$5,012,897,019	9 / 9
2026-08-09	$7.28	$5,011,956,910	12 / 11
2026-08-10	$7.28	$5,012,897,019	9 / 9
2026-08-12	$7.27	$5,011,956,910	12 / 11
2026-08-13	$7.28	$5,012,897,019	9 / 9
2026-08-14	$7.28	$5,012,897,019	9 / 9
2026-08-15	$7.28	$5,012,897,019	9 / 9
2026-08-16	$7.28	$5,012,897,019	9 / 9
2026-08-17	$7.28	$5,012,897,019	9 / 9
2026-08-18	$7.28	$5,012,897,019	9 / 9
2026-08-19	$7.28	$5,012,897,019	9 / 9
2026-08-20	$7.32	$5,025,568,373	9 / 9
2026-08-21	$7.32	$5,025,568,373	9 / 9
2026-08-22	$7.32	$5,020,704,228	9 / 9
2026-08-23	$7.32	$5,020,704,228	9 / 9
2026-08-24	$7.32	$5,020,704,228	9 / 9
2026-08-25	$7.32	$5,020,704,228	9 / 9
2026-08-26	$7.32	$5,020,686,536	9 / 9
2026-08-27	$7.32	$5,020,686,536	9 / 9
2026-08-28	$7.32	$5,020,686,536	9 / 9
2026-08-29	$7.32	$5,020,686,536	9 / 9
2026-08-30	$7.32	$5,025,166,424	9 / 9
2026-08-31	$7.32	$5,025,166,424	9 / 9
2026-09-01	$7.32	$5,025,166,424	9 / 9
2026-09-02	$7.32	$5,014,589,332	9 / 9
2026-09-03	$7.32	$5,014,589,332	9 / 9
2026-09-04	$7.32	$5,014,589,332	9 / 9
2026-09-05	$7.32	$5,014,589,332	9 / 9
2026-09-06	$7.32	$5,014,589,332	9 / 9
2026-09-07	$7.32	$5,014,589,332	9 / 9
2026-09-08	$7.32	$5,014,589,332	9 / 9
2026-09-09	$7.32	$5,014,589,332	9 / 9
2026-09-10	$7.32	$5,014,586,347	9 / 9
2026-09-11	$7.32	$5,014,586,347	9 / 9
2026-09-12	$7.32	$5,014,586,347	9 / 9
2026-09-13	$7.32	$5,014,586,347	9 / 9
2026-09-14	$7.32	$5,014,586,347	9 / 9
2026-09-15	$7.32	$5,014,586,347	9 / 9
2026-09-16	$7.32	$5,014,586,347	9 / 9
2026-09-17	$7.32	$5,014,586,347	9 / 9
2026-09-18	$7.32	$5,014,586,347	9 / 9
2026-09-19	$7.32	$5,014,586,347	9 / 9
2026-09-20	$7.32	$5,014,586,347	9 / 9
2026-09-21	$7.32	$5,014,586,347	9 / 9
2026-09-22	$7.32	$5,014,586,347	9 / 9
2026-09-23	$7.32	$5,014,586,347	9 / 9
2026-09-24	$7.32	$5,014,586,347	9 / 9
2026-09-25	$7.32	$5,014,586,347	9 / 9
2026-09-26	$7.32	$5,014,586,347	9 / 9
2026-09-27	$7.32	$5,014,586,347	9 / 9
2026-09-28	$7.32	$5,014,586,347	9 / 9
2026-09-29	$7.32	$5,014,586,347	9 / 9
2026-09-30	$7.32	$5,014,586,347	9 / 9
2026-10-01	$7.32	$5,014,586,347	9 / 9
2026-10-02	$7.31	$5,007,925,655	9 / 9
2026-10-03	$7.31	$5,007,925,655	9 / 9
2026-10-04	$7.31	$5,007,925,655	9 / 9
2026-10-05	$7.31	$5,007,925,655	9 / 9
2026-10-06	$7.31	$5,007,925,655	9 / 9
2026-10-07	$7.31	$5,007,925,655	9 / 9
2026-10-08	$7.31	$5,007,925,655	9 / 9
2026-10-09	$7.31	$5,008,919,459	9 / 9
2026-10-10	$7.31	$5,008,919,459	9 / 9
2026-10-11	$7.31	$5,008,919,459	9 / 9
2026-10-12	$7.31	$5,008,919,459	9 / 9
2026-10-13	$7.32	$5,012,007,977	9 / 9
2026-10-14	$7.32	$5,012,044,771	9 / 9
2026-10-15	$7.32	$5,012,044,771	9 / 9
2026-10-16	$7.32	$5,012,044,771	9 / 9
2026-10-17	$7.32	$5,012,044,771	9 / 9
2026-10-18	$7.32	$5,012,044,771	9 / 9
2026-10-19	$7.32	$5,012,044,771	9 / 9
2026-10-20	$7.32	$5,012,044,771	9 / 9
2026-10-21	$7.32	$5,012,044,771	9 / 9
2026-10-22	$7.32	$5,012,044,771	9 / 9
2026-10-23	$7.32	$5,012,044,771	9 / 9
2026-10-24	$7.32	$5,012,044,771	9 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	7	1
2026-06-01	6	6	0
2026-07-01	6	6	0
2026-08-01	6	6	0
2026-09-01	7	6	0
2026-10-01	7	5	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS meets or exceeds $5.0 in 2026Published status: Broken
Net income rises to at least $98M quarterly run-rateNet income: $28.9M
Operating income improves through cost controlPublished status: Under Pressure
Revenue grows at least 4.5% annuallyPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-25.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Timken outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

TKR is an industrials business with a multi-year view that depends on continued operating execution, rather than a clear turnaround or high-growth story. The thesis is intact, and company momentum has improved, but confidence is medium and management execution priorities remain under watch.

What's priced into Timken

TKR is described as cheap versus peers, with the priced-in assessment marked as justified and low in fragility. The expectations gap is slightly negative, so the evidence does not point to a large gap between current expectations and the outlook.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been holding in the top half of the industry, and the company recently raised guidance after an earnings beat. Momentum has improved, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, and recent peer misses add risk; the probability of a near-term miss is assessed as low. Margin expansion, profitable growth, capital allocation, and leadership transitions remain execution areas to watch over the multi-year view.

What Timken hinges on

A key risk is whether TKR reverses its recent guidance increase, which could weaken confidence in management. The sector backdrop also matters: continued strength from industrial peers would support momentum, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support. Leadership retention and progress on profitable growth and margins are additional swing factors.