Reading TALO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TALO free→Reading TALO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TALO free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 38% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. If TALO cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $13.81. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $14 TALO trades at 1× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $23 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 38% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -20%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated weak grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.14x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.13 → $0.29 (+116.9% / 30d). 7 raised, 0 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 55% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 21.6% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$219.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$549.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,853.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show production and financial health.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows better production and fewer losses than before.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows continued losses. Production levels remain steady.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TALO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Exploration & Production.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TALO Talos Energy, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
COP ConocoPhillips | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
EOG EOG Resources | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | full | moderate |
OXY Occidental Petroleum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FANG Diamondback Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Energy names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 45% for the rest of the cohort, n=249).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Talos aims to increase its production to a range of 62 to 66 thousand barrels of oil per day in 2026.
Talos plans to maintain its capital expenditures within the range of $500 million to $550 million for the year 2026.
Talos aimed to increase its production to a range of 94 to 97 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2025.
Talos plans to reduce capital expenditures for the full year 2025, reflecting operational efficiency.
Talos has revised its operational and financial guidance for the full year 2025 to reflect changes in production and expenses.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating goals shows good operations. It helps with growth plans.
Confirms:Q2 production guidance is confirmed at 66 MBo/d or higher.
Disproves:Q2 production guidance is lowered below 62 MBo/d.
Why it matters: If revenue growth improves, it may signal a positive shift in the energy sector.
Confirms one read:Energy sector revenue growth is above 6% in the next quarterly data release.
Confirms the other:Energy sector revenue growth is below 6% in the next quarterly data release.
Why it matters: If energy sector revenue growth speeds up, it could help Talos improve its own performance. This is important for the company's outlook.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth is over 6% year over year. This shows a recovery.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is under 6% year over year. This shows ongoing weakness.
Why it matters: Keeping CAPEX in this range shows financial discipline. This can help stabilize cash flow.
Confirms:CAPEX reported at $500M or higher but not exceeding $550M in the next earnings report.
Disproves:CAPEX reported above $550M in the next earnings report.
The filing describes a compensatory arrangement, not a management change.
of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.