Reading SIGA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SIGA free→Reading SIGA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SIGA free→NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of major Healthcare bellwethers. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $4.30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $4.34 SIGA trades at 16× p/e, in line with its 13× p/e peer median. Our $3.54 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 23% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.37x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$138.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$396.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,019.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'fair'.
The valuation dimension changed, as the valuation label moved from "full" to "fair." Risk fell. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, and recent financial performance is strong. The management dimension is stable, and the earnings quality dimension is neutral.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Meeting this target is key for growth. It shows SIGA's ability to execute on its plans.
Confirms:$26M of IV TPOXX is delivered by the end of Q3 2026.
Disproves:Delivery falls short of $26M by the end of Q3 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SIGA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensation Arrangements of Certain Officers. SIGA Technologies, Inc. (the “Company”) held its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders on June 9, 2026 (the “Annual Meeting”). As further described under
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Pharmaceuticals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SIGA SIGA Technologies, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 16 of 100 | fair | elevated |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | expensive | low |
MRK Merck & Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PFE Pfizer | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | full | low |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
SIGA aims to deliver $26 million of IV TPOXX to the U.S. Government Strategic National Stockpile by the end of Q3 2026.
SIGA is focused on securing new procurement contracts and orders to serve as the foundation of its revenues.
Why it matters: New contracts are vital for growth and stability. They show demand for SIGA's products.
Confirms:Announcement of at least one new procurement contract.
Disproves:No new procurement contracts announced in the next quarter.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, SIGA Technologies, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. Pursuant to General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information contained in, or incorporated into, this Item 2.02, including the Press Release, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as am…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 10, 2026, SIGA Technologies, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing its financial results for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2025. Pursuant to General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information contained in, or incorporated into, this Item 2.02, including the Press Release, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange A…
Other Events. On March 26, 2026, SIGA Technologies, Inc. announced that it declared a special, one-time cash dividend of $0.60 per share of common stock. The dividend is payable on April 23, 2026 to holders of record on April 7, 2026. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. SIGA TECHNOLOGIES, INC. By: /s/ Daniel J. Luckshire Nam…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 6, 2025, SIGA Technologies, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. Pursuant to General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information contained in, or incorporated into, this Item 2.02, including the Press Release, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, a…