Reading SCL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SCL free→Reading SCL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SCL free→NYSEMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, SCL is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 53% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. Rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $54.51. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $55 SCL trades at 38× p/e — 1.8× the 21× p/e peer median, and above its own 25× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $35 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 54% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
Over the trailing year it converted -11.10x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=272).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.69 → $0.61 (-11.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$115.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$285.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,278.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The company is behind on its goal for full year Adjusted EBITDA growth. Progress is key.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA growth reported at least 5% higher than Q1 results.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA growth is less than 0% compared to Q1 results.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SCL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 28, 2026, Stepan Company (“Stepan”) issued a press release providing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Specialty Chemicals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SCL Stepan Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | full | moderate |
ECL Ecolab | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PPG PPG Industries | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LYB LyondellBasell | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | — | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve full year Adjusted EBITDA growth despite market uncertainties.
The company is committed to maintaining its quarterly cash dividend on common stock.
Management continues to emphasize revenue growth across key strategic businesses.
Management is focused on enhancing operating income through efficiency measures.
Why it matters: Confirming the dividend payment shows financial health. It shows support for shareholders.
Confirms:The dividend is paid on June 15, 2026, as announced.
Disproves:The dividend payment is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: Improvement in operating income would show that management's focus on costs is starting to work. This could boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Operating income improves from -$49.6M in 2026-Q1 to above -$20M in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income continues to decline or stays below -$49.6M in Q2.
Why it matters: The company is focused on revenue growth. Updates will show if it is on track.
Confirms:Revenue growth reported at least 5% higher than the previous quarter.
Disproves:Revenue growth is flat or negative compared to the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Positive organic sales growth shows strong demand. It means the market is recovering.
Confirms:Organic sales volume grows more than 2% in Q2.
Disproves:Organic sales volume declines or remains flat in Q2.
Why it matters: The materials sector is going down. Growth would mean a possible recovery.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth turns positive for the first time in over a year.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth remains negative.
Other Events On April 28, 2026, Stepan issued a press release announcing that its Board of Directors had declared a quarterly cash dividend on its common stock of $0.395 per share. The dividend will be paid on June 15, 2026, to common stockholders of record as of June 1, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.2 hereto and incorporated herein by reference.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 23, 2026, Stepan Company (“Stepan”) issued a press release providing its financial results for the quarter and the year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference.
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On February 20, 2026, the Board of Directors of Stepan Company (“Stepan” or the “Company”) approved a comprehensive operational and efficiency plan with the objective to deliver approximately $100 million in pre-tax savings over the next two years (“Project Catalyst”). As part of Project Catalyst, the Company will close its Fieldsboro, New Jersey site and decommission select assets at its Elwood (Millsdale), Illinois and Stalybridge, United K…
and Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Forward-Looking Statements The information included in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the press release furnished as Exhibit 99…