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ROCKET COMPANIES INC (RKT)
NYSEFinancialsMortgage FinanceSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$13.93+0.14%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality is fragile, and management is volatile. The capital stance is unfriendly, and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and RKT trades below typical compared to peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 137% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Mortgage Finance
- Market cap
- $40.59B
- Employees
- 23,500
- IPO date
- 2020-07-07
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-30
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $13.93. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$5.74consensus
Range $3.09 – $9.19
vs price: +143% above
Method agreement — · 4 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$25.71consensus
Range $22.32 – $29.11
vs price: -46% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $14, RKT's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 58× p/e (4.7× the 12× p/e peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~211% near-term growth vs our ~66% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $4.48 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
58.0x
peer 12.4x · own history —
Premium
4.7x peer
Growth the price needs
211%
our forecast 66%
Our fair value
$4.48
range $3.06 – $7.38
WhyPeer anchor understates a real premiumOptionality our model can't price
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 211% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 66%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
High fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
25th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted -5.33x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
2nd pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to fall when long-term rates rise.
- real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish11 analysts, 56% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.17 → $0.18 (+0.4% / 30d). 3 raised, 7 cut, 11 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 0 maintained. 56% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutralProvisional
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$272.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$582.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,731.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for Q2 revenue growth trends
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends signal the company's ability to meet its growth priority.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 15% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth drops below 10% year over year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RKT yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like PFSI, UWMC, and WD keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting RKT and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If RKT raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If RKT cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on RKT and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like PFSI, UWMC, and WD start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping RKT and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-107d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On June 9 , 2026, Rocket Companies, Inc. (the “ Company ”) upsized and priced its previously announced private offering of $ 900,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 6.125% senior notes due 2031 and $600,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 6.500% senior notes due 2034 (collectively, the “ Notes ” and such offering, the “ Offering ”). The Notes will initially be fully and unconditionally guaranteed, jointly and severally, on a senior unsecured basis by each of the Company’s di…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+0.7 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.